Have heard that Erdogan is sick.. Circles around his eyes might be an indicator.
He has a son, if the vacancy happens, not sure the son is well know enough to actually get elected. But, the percentage of Islamists in Turkey now is pretty large.
Lots of unrest in Turkey, Economy is a disaster, huge inflation. The Kemalists were recently suppressed again, a new election might tilt the power toward them. Before Erdogan, the Kemalists has control since the end of WWI.
I saw him once -- from afar, lest you ask -- during a visit to Berlin so long ago. He looked that way then, circles under the eyes. In that time, the rumors were flying about his imminent demise. A cpuple of decades later....
The Turkish lira is at an all-time low, and Ekrem İmamoğlu's arrest, warranted or not for corruption, made for bad optics for the economy. You're right that there is a lot of unrest in Turkey. It's essentially city versus rural, with the rural leaning towards Islam more than the cosmopolitan.