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What is true yet counterintuitive is that easing short term rates (which is completely symbolic, since banks don't really use the Fed) causes longer yields to rise and bond prices to drop. If the Fed is perceived as accommodative, that's perceived as pro-growth and pro-inflation.

On top of which, bond traders loathe political uncertainty.

1 posted on 04/21/2025 6:32:33 AM PDT by Miami Rebel
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To: Miami Rebel

The Fed can only control short term interest rates, long term rates are determined by the market. In other words, the Bond market is melting down.

Loss of confidence signals crisis.


2 posted on 04/21/2025 6:37:22 AM PDT by delta7
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To: John S Mosby
Heads up.


3 posted on 04/21/2025 6:38:19 AM PDT by nathanbedford (Attack, repeat, attack! - Bull Halsey)
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To: All

spot gold up 2.54%

gld up 3.21%

what do these imply


10 posted on 04/21/2025 7:16:55 AM PDT by SteveH
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To: Miami Rebel

IIRC, the Fed likes to keep rates high in some proportion to economic activity in order to maintain a target inflation rate.

Again, IIRC, if economy is hot, which increases inflation, the feds raise rates.

But inflation also increases the more government dilutes the currency with its outrageous spending.

So to me, the natural question is - Are rates high because of the economy or the dilution?

If the economy, Trump is doing a good jump getting things going here. If the dilution, congress, as usual, is doing a crappy job keeping spending under control.


11 posted on 04/21/2025 7:16:57 AM PDT by fruser1
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To: Miami Rebel

Millions of Baby-Boomers have their assets tied up in Bonds. This bodes ill for whomever is in charge, politically speaking.


13 posted on 04/21/2025 7:46:16 AM PDT by donozark (Al Capone was a Democrat.)
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To: Miami Rebel
On top of which, bond traders loathe political uncertainty.

Well, forget today then. President Trump has been yapping about Powell. He seems unable to control himself at times.

19 posted on 04/21/2025 10:31:08 AM PDT by Fury
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