The forecasts are good and getting better is my experience. There are geographic features that affect the weather in substantial ways but NWS does a good job considering them. Combine their work with what I consider a top notch app - RadarScope - and am well set for ornithology work over the summer.
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Ah - Someone standing up for the NWS. Good on ya.
I remember 60 years ago getting a good forecast for a couple days was a hit-or-miss affair.
Today - or before I retired four years ago - I would pull up the NWS forecast for my work site out in the middle of nowhere as I was packing my bag for the week. They were good forecasts and I could depend on them. Never got caught by surprise or unprepared.
Not perfect - the storm or whatever forecast for Friday may move 12 hours either way but considering the size of the problem - 196.9 million square miles - and the “butterfly” effect, I think that’s Pretty Damn Good.
Now this climate change crap - Fire the bunch.
It’s commonly known that the longer range forecasts are not reliable. The ‘models’ that they use can deliver a wide range of conclusions for as close as a week. The 10 day forecast is pretty reliable. But when you get past that and try to deliver a forecast for next year you’re guessing. These idiots trying to deliver a forecast over the next 100 years should be fired for even trying.