Trying to stay positive, but it looks like the ultimate Black Swan event
The 2026 election will turn on “it’s the economy, stupid”.
If people who vote in the election don’t consider them better off economically, the party in power will lose. It’s played out over and over again.
The media is trying to cause panic to hurt Trump’s approval numbers.
like staying positive at the gym when you have reached the pain limit that makes so many less positive about getting stronger? remember friends...no pain no gain applies to every aspect of life that requires work and dedication. but the results will be (in my best Trump voice) MAGNIFICENT!
My family has been on these shores almost 400 years.
We’ve seen worse.
This isn’t a black swan at all. Trump said what he was going to do weeks ago. He even gave a date.
Honestly, I think a lot of “systems” were simply looking for an excuse to bail out of the markets.
If you were a financial market trader, you “should” have been buying puts for the past week and riding this market down. This was as obvious as the COVID sell off around the same time in 2020. If you were paying attention, it was obvious what was going to happen.
That said, in the next few weeks there will be lots of negotiations which will result in favorable results. A good example is Vietnam.
Finally, I graduated from college in May of ‘82. This was at the depth of the Reagan recession as a result of his tax policies. By the end of ‘82 things started turning and by ‘84 things were humming.
Think we are in a similar situation. The tech companies will continue to perform well. But you will see some improvement in manufacturing, which has taken a hit over the past ten years or so.
Markets like to “react.” These days it seems everything is “magnified” as a result of social media.
I am willing to give this six months to a year and then we can see where we are.