Russia’s oil exports are 7.4 million bpd. Only Saudi Arabia comes close to that.
China’s oil consumption is 16.4 million barrels/day and as of the latest official numbers, that number grew 10% from the previous year. This is well past Covid. It is not virus recovery adding to consumption.
China’s oil production is about 4.5 mbpd. That means they are importing 12 mbpd.
Russia’s pipelines into China have about a 3 mbpd capacity. The conduit to India is another 1 mbpd. The rest is tankered, or actually more often, it is intermixed in Kazahkstan with Azerbaijani crude and sent east to China in the Kazahkstan-China pipeline (the capacity of which I do not know off the top of my head, about 1 mbpd is my recall).
This would add up to about 5.5 mbpd of the 7.4 mbpd Russia currently exports.
I can’t see how these new sanctions will matter, which is besides the reality that Russia has its own Central Bank that can QE a few billion dollar equivalents per year without stressing anything, given their small debt/GDP ratio compared to the US.
I probably left off the key point.
7.4 mbpd of Russian export is 7% of the global total oil consumption. There is nowhere else to go to get that. Oil is not abundant when viewed in the context of the world’s 100 mbpd consumption (it will read 103 when the next report is out in June).
The world HAS to have that oil. It is civilization’s lifeblood. No oil, trucks don’t run and grocery store shelves go empty.
The big consumers of oil in the world are the US at about 18 mbpd, China at 16.5 mbpd, India at about 6 mbpd (rises 5%/yr) and shockingly, Saudi Arabia at 4.7 mbpd is #4 (we are talking about consumption, not production). They are all growing their consumption. You can’t cut the world off from Russian oil. You can try. Maneuvers will be found. Money pressures are countered by not having food on the shelves.