The 1 October date ends the CR and the current CR was put into place with promises of “doing it right” for the 1 October date. There is also a pending Debt Ceiling fight upcoming, pre 1 October. The usual special actions from Treasury are currently underway, and predicting outright exhaustion of those actions is not possible until exact tax receipts are known mid April. Odds are . . . June.
June and October will be much on Trump’s mind upcoming. Odds would look good that efforts to finesse controversy in Congress when a cut-off is decided upon will be successful by making the cut-off something not applying to food aid.
But the numbers are just too large. A cut-off of flow of things to Ukraine is inevitable. If you can’t afford it, you can’t afford it.
Ukraine attacked Russian energy infrastructure Ukraine agreed to the Trump plan of a 30 day ceasefire, which Russia refused.
Russia hasn't actually agreed to ANY ceasefire, including on energy since they have made additional demands, dropping sanctions, lifting financial restrictions, Ukraine halting mobilization, weapons shipments to Ukraine, etc.
The White House wanted a temporarily halt on attacks on energy and infrastructure targets, but Russia instead said it had agreed to refrain from attacks on “energy infrastructure” only and continued daily drone attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure.
March 11: Ukraine agrees in principle to a ceasefire proposal following talks between the two countries in Saudi Arabia, and the US agrees to reinstate military and intelligence sharing.
March 13: Witkoff travels to Moscow to brief Kremlin officials on the US-proposed plan. Putin says he agrees in principle but then presented a list of demands that made the plan impossible to carry out. Those demands include a suggestion that Ukraine halts mobilization and any training of its troops, and that other nations stop supplying weapons to Kyiv during the ceasefire.
March 18: Trump speaks to Putin on the phone but fails to convince him to sign on to the ceasefire agreement. The White House says that Russia had agreed to temporarily halt attacks on energy and infrastructure targets in Ukraine. But Russia instead said it had agreed to refrain from attacks on “energy infrastructure.”
March 21: The southern Ukrainian port city of Odesa is struck by a large-scale Russian drone attack.
Municipal workers clean up after Russian drones hit shops during the night attack in Odesa, Ukraine, March 21, 2025.

March 25: Russian and US officials meet in the same hotel in Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. By the afternoon, the White House says Ukraine and Russia have agreed to “ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.” Ukraine’s Zelensky says in a news conference that Kyiv has agreed to stop using military force in the Black Sea, but shortly after, the Kremlin says it will agree provided financial sanctions are lifted on key Russian institutions – thereby making the deal void.
Following that call, Trump told Newsmax he believes Russia wants to end its war with Ukraine, but that Moscow could be delaying a deal.
“I think that Russia wants to see an end to it, but it could be they’re dragging their feet. I’ve done it over the years,”