[noiseman]

Not sure you can have wind shear in those conditions. Besides, if it were wind shear they would have come in short. It came in fast and appeared to be above glide slope. I don’t see how it cannot be a huge pilot error but it is something I would not expect of a pilot of any reasonable skill level. We will have to wait and see the accident report.

They “landed” very short. They hit right on the numbers, which is about 1,000 feet short of the touchdown zone. Also, if you watch the latest video, the one taken by the pilot who was holding short of the runway, the aircraft initially looks like it’s in a pretty normal pitch attitude for a jet on approach, slightly nose-high, but then you can see the pitch flatten out, followed by the aircraft just pancaking flat onto the runway with no flare. My guess would be that they DID experience a sudden loss of airspeed due to wind shear, which caused the pilot to push the nose down to compensate for the loss. The only question is did they stall or nearly stall right before they could flare, or did they screw up during everything that was happening so quickly and try to flare too late?

And wind shear definitely can occur during those types of conditions. All it takes is a sudden change in the direction of the wind, or a sudden drop in its velocity, to cause enough of a reduction in the relative wind flowing over the wings to cause a stall or incipient stall. That’s why all fixed-wing aircraft add one-half the wind speed, up to a specified limit, when landing in high and especially gusty winds. It’s done to compensate for the effect of a possible sudden lull in the wind

That sudden lowering of the nose followed by an obvious sudden increase in the descent rate looks to me like the smoking gun for wind shear. But, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t other factors that contributed as well. We can only know what those are (and if wind shear actually was involved) once the NTSB has gone over all of the data and interviewed the crew.

[Regulator]

And the video shows exactly that.

Got hit by wind shear, maybe just transition to the boundary layer, but you can clearly see the increased vertical rate and the lower pitch. Bet they lost ~ 10 ktas.

Pilot forums are claiming CPT was a new ATP and the FO was a sim instructor on a currency flight. Probably too slow to add power and kill the descent rate or go around, too close to the stall to flare at the end.

Will all come out in the FDR data.