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Yes, the US will increasingly find Germany less likely to do our bidding. Recent polls have found that of all the nations of Europe the Germans dislike America the most.

I think the real danger is the 19th century nightmare, an Asian landmass extending from the western border of Germany to the Pacific that is possessed of a nearly unending inventory of minerals, petroleum, people, scientific knowledge and riches. Germany and Russia are currently on the ropes with China not far behind but one can see within a generation a world power of the first rank with aggressive appetites.

The history of Europe post Napoleon is really the history of Germany. It has been the preoccupation of the British to prevent the amalgamation of Germany with Russia. If one adds modern, powerful China to that combination, the threat could be very daunting indeed.

This is very well-written.

I can't help but think that the American Empire has pi$$ed away an awful lot of opportunity and goodwill; why we needed rainbow flags at our embassies will be one for the historians to scratch their heads over.

The biggest problem with the formation of such a formidable power is cultural. AfD is composed mostly of people (mostly blue collar) who HATE the Muslims. The Chinese gladly subjugate Muslims (and most of their own race, for that matter), but, Chinese culture (esp. modern Chinese culture) and Muslim culture are hugely at odds. The Russians also gladly subjugate Muslims (and most of their own), but, Chinese culture and Russian culture are also quite at odds. I can picture Russo-Chinese cooperation along the lines of the “best” of it during the Cold War, but further than that seems unlikely unless Russia reverts back to a more atheistic culture. None of these are really “live and let live” groups — each thinks THEY are superior, and on a deeper level than oft-cited USA-Euro divisions. How the alliance would hold up seems quite uncertain.

Granted that cultural shifts can occur - one such (on a bit smaller scale) is the primary driving factor (root”?) in the Ukraine war.

Mostly agreed on your post-Napoleon “history of Europe”: That’s one of the reasons that the idea of Germany spending even 5% on defense (and really meaning it and not just making it another social program) is somewhat alarming...