No, because China has a uniquely vulnerable strategic position. It similar to what Germany faced in WW1
While China cannot easily be invaded, it is easy to cut off from strategic imports like oil. China is very difficult to access going West to East. So China is very depended on sea borne trade.
Look at a map. Geography and alliances give the US Navy and Airforce an unbreakable choke hold on Chinese sea trade any time they want to apply it
WIKI
The Big Inch and Little Big Inch, collectively known as the Inch pipelines, are petroleum pipelines extending from Texas to New Jersey, built between 1942 and 1944 as emergency war measures in the United States.
the Big and Little Big Inch pipelines were 1,254 and 1,475 miles (2,018 and 2,374 kilometres) long respectively, with 35 pumping stations along their routes. The project required 16,000 people and 725,000 short tons (658,000 t) of materials.
The National Tube Company of Lorain, Ohio produced from 137,500 tons of steel the pipe for the 550-mile section between Long View and Norris City in 4 month[s]
The schedule called for 5 miles (8.0 km) of the Big Inch pipeline to be laid each day. But soon men were laying as much as 9 miles (14 km) a day.
Oil began flowing through the Big Inch Line between Texas and Illinois on New Year’s Eve 1942
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Inch
The Zeihan guy is safely ignored. This was the same guy who said all Russian oil pipelines would freeze and clog from lack of use by no later than early 2023.
Northeastern China has oil. It’s depleting, but it still flows about 4.5 million barrel/day. Their consumption is over 14 million bpd so they certainly must import. Lots of pipelines from Russia and lots of import ports along the east coast. They can be blockaded, but if that happened they will still have their domestic production and whatever comes from Russia. Now about 1 million bpd. Another 0.5 million bpd from the Kazahkstan pipeline into China.
China won’t starve from any blockade.
China growing production of nat gas. Now at 200 billion cubic meters/year. Consumption is 400. 200 billion cubic meters is pretty much nothing with Russia, the big kahuna of nat gas, next door.
Their oil consumption shows some signs of slowing this year for economic (not EV) reasons, but this has happened before and growth generally resumes. Ditto India.
Bottom line, China needs some imports. They don’t have to get them by sea.
After a few months of stalemate, I could see the Chinese secure the East Asian sea routes, cutting off America from vital resources coming from the region with 60% of the world's population and China gaining access to those resources. The US is in the same position now as Japan at the outset of WWII - we can run wild for 6 months, but if we haven't won by then I see little hope for victory.
I think the alliance with Iran and Russia makes their problems easier. Also given the role of China in world economy, whoever attack China, attacks the whole world.
“Look at a map. Geography and alliances give the US Navy and Airforce an unbreakable choke hold on Chinese sea trade any time they want to apply it”
That’s the bottom line right there.
Especially with their inability to project power more than the range of fighter aircraft. ~500 miles.
And even that would be short lived against the US Air Force and US Navy.
We could cut their oil in 24hrs.