Not only that, but I think the IRS is using AI to analyze bank balances to externally calculate your refund/payment.
I got a bunch of notifications from the IRS this year basically implying that I didn’t file enough on my return because of one client that messed up their 1099s. It became clear as I went along that they’re watching bank balances and have an active window of what your valid tax payment should be.
I bet the reverse is not followed i.e. the IRS suspecting you were over paying your estimated taxes.