Russia is in an awkward position. Forty percent of their budget is dedicated to war production and personnel costs. Their economy has been destroyed by something called “Dutch Disease.” That’s where one thing dominates the economy and the rest, services, civilian businesses all fail because the employees are working in the war industry. If the war stops then their economy collapses. If the war continues the collapse will occur later. What Russia must have is an end to sanctions and an immediate infusion of cash...a loan. I don’t see that happening.
As long as Putin in charge no sane Western company will move back into Russia. No sane Western nation will ever again become dependent on Russian gas or oil.
Russia is screwed no matter what happens.
A simple cease fire will probably benefit Ukraine if the West continues supplying arms and sustainment.
“A simple cease fire will probably benefit Ukraine if the West continues supplying arms and sustainment.”
...
And that is why there won’t be one. The Russians don’t trust us, and know that any ceasefire will just lead to rearming - just like Korea, Cyprus, Kosovo, etc. Conflicts just waiting to restart.
Give war a chance.
“What Russia must have is an end to sanctions”
The CCCP was locked out 1947-1990 by USA.
“and an immediate infusion of cash...a loan.”
Russian gold is better than electronic dollars.
“As long as Putin in charge no sane Western company will move back into Russia.”
Russians can make hamburgers & freedom fries.
“sane Western company”
Any left in EU? USA?
GM? Ford? Stellanis? VW? Jaguar?
“No sane Western nation will ever again become dependent on Russian gas or oil.”
EU had plans to phase out fossil fuels even before war.
“sane Western nation”
Hungary would only need small percentage of Russian oil/gas production capability.
“one thing dominates the economy”
military as % of GDP
USA 1944 ~38%
RF 2024 ~8%