Posted on 11/07/2024 8:54:11 AM PST by marcusmaximus
I an fairly certain that the fallout from this would lead to WW3. Just maybe not starting on this border.
As much as I dislike Clinton, I can’t really hang this one on Clintoon, except Clinton should have been able to see where Russia would head to. (Russia.)
Ukraine should have realized that with no force of a Mutual Defense Treaty put in place, they were just asking for trouble in the future. They should have kept at least 10 nukes.
Hopium? This would be a major defeat for Ukraine.
I cannot imagine Putin accepting European peacekeepers.
Maybe Hungary, but I can’t see Hungary being remotely up to the task, and the Ukies would distrust and hate them.
BTW, has anyone seen any new news about a Hungarian deal with Iran on nuke tech? I know that’s been on and off for a long time, but last night I had a succession of vids playing while I was working on some stuff, so, I don’t know which one, but somebody said a $85 million deal had been made recently.
I know it’s supposedly non-military, but I still cannot imagine DJT would not hit the roof.
It's like Jules Verne's 20,000 Leagues Under The Sea that got me when I was a kid and thought "depth" (whoa!), not distance traveled...
Don’t count your borscht before it gets cooked, Cookies.
Given where drone technology is now, and where it will be in a few years, how do you stop partisans in Ukraine who understand:
Several hundred years of on and off abuse by Russia.
That they’ve lost not only Crimea and 20% of Eastern Ukraine, there went most of their non-farm resources, especially the large oil and gas reserves discovered between 2000 and 2014, but other minerals too, which just kills any chance of Ukraine becoming prosperous for a very long time.
Revenge.
That unless that 800 mile(??!!) DMZ is the most incredibly well guarded, surveilled, and costly per mile border in the world, they will be able to penetrate it with said drones with near impunity. I cannot imagine Russia would tolerate those attacks too long, and then we are back off to the fun.
Note that I cannot imagine the average Ukie accepting Ukraine NOT being much more capable of defending itself: They feel stabbed in the back by Russia and no way can they trust Russia short of the current Russian governmental system collapsing and being swapped out (which seems very unlikely.)
I don’t know about you, but if that happened to the US, damn yes I would fight. Even if it was just programming drones.
Thieu was right, wasn’t he?
My Dad had a older friend who went through that as a late teen. We used to visit him when we went to see my paternal grandparents. First, he had to avoid getting conscripted by the Russians. Then he had to stay out of the way of the Germans and as he recounted it, a few local Nazi-type collaborators trying to forcibly recruit. Then it was back to the Russians, who basically wanted to kill any fighting age guy who couldn’t prove he had been fighting the Germans as a partisan. The civilian death tolls were horrific. He hated both the Germans and the Russians. On one occasion I asked him which was worse and he paused a moment and said: “The Nazis (Germans) were awful. The Russians were worse.”
Huh? But almost all the pro-Russians on here say the sanctions are not a problem and Russia’s economy is great.
In this case, I think a buffer zone, unless it is something well beyond anything ever seen in the world (and ~ 800 miles of it!), is meaningless in an inexpensive autonomous drone world.
Putin has generated FAR more hatred of Russia in Ukraine than ever existed regarding his claims of Nazis in Ukraine being a danger.
I believe it. Between the Communist leaders and the Germans, almost an entire generation of Russians was lost.
Poroshenko will depose Z-man all right. For giving up too much, if that’s what happens. This is the dude who came back to Kyiv from Poland to fight in the streets when Z-man had been trying to have him tried for treason. That mo-fo (P-man) is a fighter, not a compromiser.
Tunnels!!!
I have no idea what a pro Russian says and I can care less
Any sanction hurts, it’s just unclear how bad it hurts
But that’s not the point
The biggest obstacle to peaceful resolution is coming up with what appears to be an honorable, fair and face saving resolution for both sides
Sanctions are a major bargaining chip in the perception of the deal.
It really does not matter if the chip is a five dollar chip or a five thousand dollar chip. What matters is that it’s a chip you can take away from the table and claim you won.
That’s a big deal in a good way for a couple of players who are both on big time losing streaks and really would be happy just to get back to even
I think that’s why there’s going to be a negotiated treaty. Everyone agrees to this that and the other thing and no more fighting.
Putin does not want to continue this conflict. Its highly unpopular at home and draining the coffers. If he gets what he wants he’ll go home.
Putin does not want to take over and occupy the Ukraine. Its too expensive as it will just be a welfare state.
I was being sarcastic!
Certainly the sanctions are having a considerable (but not crippling) effect. The Ruble’s trade volume is almost dead, and the black market value (probably the best indicator of a currency’s strength) is 50 ft. under the basement.
The problem here is that you are looking at this on a leadership / top down level.
Pooty has generated millions of Ukies who are (or at least were) nice people and added them to the very Nazis he claimed he had to go after. They are not Nazis, or like radical Muzzies, they are just patriots who now seeth with barely concealed hatred and contempt for Russia. I’m not saying they themselves will form some human wave to crash across the DMZ to kill Russians. That is silly. But will they support 200k or 300k partisans engaging in cross border drone attacks?
Another problem is the fallout of anything that can be perceived around the world, at all levels, as a Putin win. Obviously he has to spin things that way, and the propaganda will be very heavy in the non-Western world.
You too, are looking at this in a sort of leadership / transactional way. That works for dictators (to a point) and go-between negotiators.
It doesn’t necessarily work where the people themselves have a say.
Please read my post above about the factor of, essentially, the PO’d Ukrainian people. Or at least a chunk of them.
Then read again our own Declaration of Independence (and consider only about 10% of the colonies’ population is thought to have actively contributed to The Revolution.) The important part is that last line.
BTW, don’t get me wrong. I wish to heck this war could end fairly cleanly, and Trump would come out of it with a huge, huge victory for himself and the USA.
But... I look at the history of these sort of conflicts, why populations resist, or not, and then try to account for new factors like drone warfare.
This one is monstrously tough.
I think you will be surprised at how quickly this will be resolved.
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