Posted on 11/01/2024 4:56:45 PM PDT by traderrob6
These "prediction markets" are not like that. They are modeled on futures trading. Trump winning is like a futures contract (or, to simplify even further a bit, like a stock) in that it can be bought and sold at any time, as long as their are willing buyers. If Trump's are being bought at 67 and you really want to dump your Trumps you price at 66 and boom: your contracts are sold.
So, people bought the Trump contract a long time ago, and it's gone way up. Now if they hold, and Trump loses, they lose 100% of what they put on him. With the price of Trump going so high, now is the logical time to get out if your primary interest is making money and minimizing risk. If you bought Trump at 40 and sell now at 65 you've made 37.5% on your money in a few months. That beats the S&P nicely.
By selling now you take the profit, and have no downside no matter who wins.
In other words "profit taking in a bull market".
“A legitimate, free election will see Trump win in a landslide.”
Okay, but what about the corrupt election we’re about to get? Is Trump’s margin “too big to rig”? I hope so, but I’m worried.
“He hit 67% yesterday.”
That was irrational.
All publicly available data suggests a very close race. Not a 2 - 1 race.
This tightening of the polls was pretty much inevitable.
I’ll say this though. I’d much rather be in our position than theirs.
Seems too late since most Dems will have voted.
Interesting.
Even Nate Silver of 538 said the pollsters are lying
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4274986/posts
BLOOMBERG DONATED $50 MILLION to Harris in past 48 hours.
Yes..ads are running continually on our local radio station
Thank you very much. This is an outstanding explanation of what is going on. It should very much help people understand that this isn’t like looking at polling.
It sounds similar to options contracts. Where you could hold them to expiration but you run the risk of them going to zero whereas selling them after they make some money or increase in value but before their expiration date, is a better option risk wise.
Somebody is depressing the market, so they can buy Trump cheaper. It doesn’t take a lot of money to move markets this small. It’s not the bond market.
These odds are totally meaningless - the people betting don’t know what’s going to happen - period.
Relax....
Arbitrage is a financial strategy that involves buying and selling an asset in different markets to profit from price differences.
“He hit 67% yesterday.”I assume that a lot of people placing Harris bets now previously made some big Trump bets. By betting on Harris at 2-1 odds they could actually guarantee that they will make money regardless of who wins.
That was irrational.
Anyone familiar with sports betting understands what is going on.
Millions of Democrats who voted in 2016 and 2020 are sitting on their hands and not voting this year.
The Harris team is trying to do anything to get them off the couch to vote.
That explains the raft of wild charges, the poll fixing and the massive advertising.
It is the smell of desperation.
They are losing—badly—and will do anything to hide that basic fact from their own potential voters.
profit-taking before weekend.
I voted for Trump in early voting in GA, anyways. So did my better half.
We don’t really care what a bunch of relapsing members of Gamblers Anonymous do.
The media and the Harris campaign are throwing a lot of heil mary’s in this 11th hour. One of them was an unforced error on the part of that “comedian” at the MSG rally and they were able to use that and report that as being the only thing that occurred at that rally - literally the lead news story for 3 days.
Now they are blatantly lying about Trump’s remarks regarding Liz Cheney, saying he called for her to be executed by firing squad. Never said anything of the sort, but it is a lead news story on multiple networks and being blanketed across the media spectrum.
Harris and her allies continue to be the only media presence for campaign advertising across many media outlets nationwide.
All of those things have rattled this market. I would take heart that Trump has a lead at all still, let alone one that large, given these outrageous efforts by the press and the opposing campaign.
I checked this morning on Heritage sports, and he still doing just fine. That’s real people betting real money. And Trump is ahead in every swing state on that site. So there’s no crashing going on. What you have is people playing a hunch with some odds in their favor. Bettors do that all the time
My bet is that Trump gets a lot closer to 75 m than Harris gets to 81 m.
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