I hope everyone realizes no one has changed their minds.
These poll movements are purely adjustments to the turnout model by the pollsters. They changed their minds, not the people they telephone.
They generated a big surge when Biden dropped out by choosing to believe this would explode black turnout.
Time has passed. One would think they have done some surveys to see if black turnout really will increase. The answer may be no, so they changed their turnout back to what it was.
Overall, the point is, this is pollsters changing their minds. Not their samples changing theirs.
So when you grope around looking for causes . . . like the VP debate, some phone call scandal about the hurricane . . . a bad interview . . . just put that stuff aside. That stuff is not moving the needle. Only pollster whimsy is moving the needle.
You’re right. People aren’t changing their minds. What may be changing is the interest in showing up and voting for Kamala.