“In actuality, this movie will need to make over $1 billion just to break even”
You must have inside info on the budget of the movie. I’m finding via searches that it’s 209 million.
General rule of thumb marketing doubles that amount before a profit is seen.
Principal filming was done in 2022. Test screenings did not go well, as a result there have been 3 reshoots of the film. That has added significantly to the costs and right now estimated costs are at least between $400 and $500 Million, this does not include marketing costs.
I follow some entertainment channels on YouTube that have been covering this story pretty closely and the figures I mention are based on their research. Disney films a lot of stuff in the UK for tax reasons, they offer up to a 25% rebate on production costs for filming there so those Tax records are public information, this where a great deal of this information comes from.
So yes they will have to gross over $1 Billion to even think of breaking even.