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Trump's Lead Is MUCH LARGER THAN YOU THINK! | 2024 Election Map Analysis (September 2024)
youtube ^ | 09/04/2024 | Gold Crown Politics

Posted on 09/04/2024 8:44:13 PM PDT by Signalman

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1 posted on 09/04/2024 8:44:13 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: Signalman

Old saying: “if the polls say you’re a million votes ahead, campaign as though you’re a million votes behind.”


2 posted on 09/04/2024 8:49:43 PM PDT by Fiji Hill
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To: Signalman

After 2022, I don’t believe anything until 100 percent of the results are in. From predicting 30-40 house seats, we ended up with 9 seats. And that’s when everything was bad. It still is but people got used to it.


3 posted on 09/04/2024 8:57:02 PM PDT by napscoordinator (DeSantis is a beast! Florida is the freest state in the country! )
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To: Signalman

Yes but do they factor in democrat 3:30 am vote dumps in the swing states?


4 posted on 09/04/2024 9:22:41 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (Gone Galt; not averse to Going Bronson.)
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To: All

It’s not clear why there are these perpetual comments in response to polls that ask about Democrat fake votes not being in the polls.

What exactly is the point of that? What is that going to change? And why do polling threads attract this stuff? Why not spam that into every single FR thread?

That guy who posts about Civil War battles. Why not post this stuff about vote fraud on those threads? It’s just as relevant. Or the posts about Catholic this or that. Post about vote fraud there.

As for this particular polling . . . if turnout models are not reasonable leftward then they may not be reasonable rightward. You can’t, for example, decide black turnout will be 3% and sample accordingly. That’s just not reasonable.

As for state of the electorate, the single most likely error in the turnout models is their undersampling of independents, who are probably more than 40% of the total. It has changed hugely from the 2020 Census that drives turnout models for most pollsters.


5 posted on 09/04/2024 9:31:37 PM PDT by Owen
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To: Secret Agent Man

WE ALL MUST VOTE, I am ashamed to say that for the first time in my life I DID NOT VOTE in 2022, I was BEYOND disgusted, felt completely defeated after the steal of 2020! This election WE MUST make this so HUGE they can’t possibly steal it!! WE MUST prove numbers SO BIG that the American public KNOWS that these bastards are NO WHERE NEAR the numbers they want us to believe the country has become this evil!! WE MUST make the nation SEE in HUGE NUMBERS that America is STILL American Patriots NOT a bunch of idiots wearing pink pussy hats or Antifa terrorists which actually are one in the same with different hats on with masks!!


6 posted on 09/04/2024 9:34:11 PM PDT by Trump Girl Kit Cat (Yosemite Sam raising hell)
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To: Fiji Hill

Is that accounting for election fraud?


7 posted on 09/04/2024 9:56:14 PM PDT by Mark17 (Retired USAF air traffic controller. Father of USAF pilot. Both bitten by the aviation bug)
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To: Owen

I agree. It’s defeatist and just plain tiresome. Yes. That are going to cheat. The maximum margin of cheat is about 5%. We need to beat them by more than that. It’s just that simple


8 posted on 09/04/2024 9:59:47 PM PDT by j.havenfarm (23 years on Free Republic, 12/10/23! More than 8,000 replies and still not shutting up!)
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To: Owen

Its relevant to post about because we all see it occurring and there is no justice dealt about it. It makes a mockery of our country and our voting system.

Of course its gone on since the beginning, but never the way it did in 2020. We have the evidence, all the 3:30 am dumps that are ztatisticslly impossible, all the dems that kicked out watchers, the people caught on video running ballots over again and again, etc.

Its relevant because of the massive scale of it in 2020, and no one responsible in jail over it.

Its relevsnt because when some say well we will just have to vofe more than 5% to overcome it, the left knows they can just dump 6, 7 or 8% because who’s going to stop them and who’s going to prosecute them, and who’s going to remove the fake president?


9 posted on 09/04/2024 10:05:49 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (Gone Galt; not averse to Going Bronson.)
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To: napscoordinator

“After 2022, I don’t believe anything until 100 percent of the results are in. From predicting 30-40 house seats, we ended up with 9 seats.”

Yep.

The “red wave” that never materialized. That’s why I prefer pessimists over optimists. The ‘Doom and Gloomers’ are a lot more interesting.

My motto is ‘hope for the best, expect the worst.’


10 posted on 09/04/2024 10:10:10 PM PDT by Mr. N. Wolfe
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To: Owen

It does get old after a while. We all know Democrats cheat. Rasmussen has Trump pretty far ahead.


11 posted on 09/04/2024 10:36:07 PM PDT by roving (Deplorable Erectionists Listless Vessel )
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To: Secret Agent Man

No. It is not relevant.

Polls are a measure of the electorate, done on the basis of a turnout model.

If fraud arrives on election day it has nothing whatsoever to do with the measurement of the electorate that took place 2 months before that event. Nothing at all. Polls actually can’t tell you who is ahead because their turnout models may not prove correct. What polls tell you is if there is a change of attitudes taking place in the electorate. The movement within a turnout model is the information.

If fraud shows up election day, it is entirely irrelevant to the measurement of that movement taking place now.


12 posted on 09/04/2024 10:38:21 PM PDT by Owen
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To: Secret Agent Man

You get a whole bunch of the same comments in each thread. Of course, polls aren’t going to factor in the cheat. So why keep repeating it?


13 posted on 09/04/2024 10:39:55 PM PDT by roving (Deplorable Erectionists Listless Vessel )
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To: Signalman
Bob Swerski says Trump wins 538 to zip.

IMG-1848

14 posted on 09/04/2024 11:17:15 PM PDT by dznutz
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To: roving; All

We’ll have to disagree.

And I and anyone else here will post what we want. I don’t care if you or anyone else doesn’t like it for whatever reasons you might feel.


15 posted on 09/04/2024 11:17:17 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (Gone Galt; not averse to Going Bronson.)
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To: Secret Agent Man

I agree with you. It all feels obvious.


16 posted on 09/04/2024 11:24:28 PM PDT by Sequoyah101 (More important than why there was nobody protecting the AGR roof, how did Crooks know that?)
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To: Trump Girl Kit Cat

Agreed wholeheartedly.


17 posted on 09/04/2024 11:33:02 PM PDT by Spacetrucker ("You Missed,BI*CH" Tom MacDonald )
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To: roving

“You get a whole bunch of the same comments in each thread. Of course, polls aren’t going to factor in the cheat. So why keep repeating it?”

This “woe is me the Democrats are going to cheat it’s hopeless” crap is tiresome. Then there’s the guys who bitch about sheeple and all that. Ask these geniuses what their bright ideas are and they clam up.


18 posted on 09/05/2024 12:49:51 AM PDT by rxh4n1 ( )
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To: Secret Agent Man

I will never forget how Trump was winning and then after midnight, boom! He was suddenly losing.


19 posted on 09/05/2024 1:13:54 AM PDT by Beowulf9
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To: j.havenfarm

If the black vote flips, just imagine how huge they will need to cheat by. The vote totals will be insane.


20 posted on 09/05/2024 1:37:18 AM PDT by cnsmom
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