Black swans ARE real (both in nature and in the course of human events,) but my take on Taleb’s work is that it’s not so much a refusal to recognize factors but that the nature of certain factors is that they are so rare and hard to predict as to make them incomputable.
Pity being “incomputable” doesn’t mean “impossible.”
Anybody with a functioning synapse saw the housing collapse of 2007-08 coming, though it may have been deemed “incomputable” because the dataset contained about about 40 years of history.