Posted on 08/04/2024 1:42:52 PM PDT by Kazan
Forty-nine percent of registered voters said they would vote for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election and 46% said would vote for Vice President Kamala Harris, an improvement for Harris on President Joe Biden's previous performance against Trump, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.
The poll, conducted July 22-23, days after Biden announced he is withdrawing from the race, surveyed registered voters who previously participated in CNN surveys in April or June, which showed Trump leading Biden by 6 percentage points.
The poll found:
*64% said Republicans have a better chance of winning the presidency in 2024 if Trump is the party’s nominee.
*50% said their vote is more in support of Harris than against Trump, compared to 37% of Biden’s supporters who said their vote was mainly to express support for the president.
*74% said their vote is to express support for Trump rather than their opposition to Harris.
*Among Harris supporters younger than 45, 43% say their vote is more in support of her than against Trump, up from 28% of Biden voters in that age group who felt the same way about the president in June.
*Democrats and Democrat-leaning voters are split over whether the next nominee should continue Biden’s policies (53%) or take the country in a new direction (47%).
88% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters say Republicans have a better chance to win with Trump at the top of the ticket.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
And now we have him backing out of a debate which makes him look weak and attacking Kemp at a rally in Georgia (for reasons I'm scratching my head to comprehend).
Does he even want to win?
I hear his own campaign making excuses. No one in other aspects of life would allow their financial advisor, accountant, coworkers, explain away terrible numbers with these falling numbers.
All the recent polls I’ve seen are of registered voters, which biases the poll toward Harris.
except all voters are now likely voters;If you don’t vote, someone will vote for you.
Those polls, several of them, do not appear to qualify for the RCP average. There are fairly strict requirements as to sampling with a consistent turnout model.
This morning’s CBS News poll, in apparent keeping with RCP requirements, explicitly noted in their text that they oversampled blacks in comparison to their previous sampling for their turnout model. This moved them from T+2 to H+1.
But if you do not maintain your turnout model constant, you have not really taken a measurement that can be compared to your previous measurements.
For the zillionth time, it does not matter what a poll says because they have turnout models that may or may not be correct. What DOES matter is a change in a poll from week or month to month, holding the model steady. If you that, you can measure change. If you don’t hold it steady, you are not measuring attitude change. You’re just showing what a turnout model change does.
The CBS poll had Harris 49%, Trump 47%, Robert Kennedy 2%, Jill Stein 0% and Cornel West 0%. So CBS is saying only 2% is willing to vote for Robert Kennedy, Jill Stein, and Cornel West? I find that hard to believe. In 2016 Jill Stein did get 1.07% of the vote. I think a more believable number is Robert Kennedy 5%, Jill Stein 1% and Cornel West 0.5%.
It’s 2 weeks old...🙄
Wishful thinking most likely. I totally agree!
I’m beyond pissed! I’m voting for him, bur I’m upset. It doesn’t seem at all like he cares a thing about winning. I’ve read many say that an average Presidential campaign has 250 staff on hand for the multitude of different things needed to coordinate & organize for the entire campaign until election day. 250 people on average. Trump has 20 people. Cue all of the geniuses to tell me it’s actually a good thing. He’s spending the majority of time focusing on Kamalas heritage. People don’t care. Some are afraid that he’s planning on using the funds for legal expenses & not winning the election. I hope not. I would be angry & depressed. We have got to win 😑
Harris is getting bump with ignorant voters because of all the positive media coverage she's getting. That works with some ignorant, "registered" voters that the polls are including. But, it won't work with informed voters and nor will Harris hold up when Trump and his PACs start hammering her.
Taking polls of registered voters ALWAYS biases a poll in favor of Democrats, especially in year when the incumbent Democrat administration is so unpopular.
Stop panicking and lashing out at Trump.
The bigger concern is that Harris could remain close enough for voter fraud to make the difference again.
Sorry, but drinking kool aid while seeing a trend run amok is not going to help.
Buying the lies about Trump, biased polls, which ones of registered voters ALWAYS ARE, and being manipulated by the media.
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