Absolutely sickening, and we can’t just brush this aside by saying “Oh those polls are always wrong” This is BAD, really bad! Trump should be absolutely slaughtering Biden, especially since we damn well know democrats are going to cheat with illegals voting.
Astounding to me how incredibly stupid people are and I see it every day on social media, twitter, people believing 100% in the fake indictments, 34 felonies, believing the lies. They just have no idea how incredibly effed they are going to be if Biden or Harris or some other DemoMarxist wins this election. I know for a fact if that happens, they are going to put diesel fuel in their sites in the name of the climate change hoax and if they start regulating it, limiting it, get ready to starve.
word is dem internal polling is a catastrophe. One dem pollster said it could take until 2028 to get the House back. Forget national polls, means nothing.
No need to panic just yet...with these numbers, we would likely prevail in the Electoral College...but...
The Biden campaign/DNC has been running rings around the Trump campaign all year, just like they did in 2020 - crushing and outmaneuvering them at every turn, while the base has mostly abandoned Trump and other candidates while the Dem base forks over the cash to support their candidates. Other than right after Trump’s bogus conviction, the base has been asleep at the switch...and even with that infusion of cash, you can’t catch up to the effects of several months of marketing/advertising and setting up of infrastructure Biden/Dems have been purchasing with what had been a consistent and enormous cash advantage for most of this campaign season.
Biden performing very poorly in the debate did not improve what people think of Trump...a year of consistently negative news coverage with this completed by Biden’s barrage of negative ads is not negated by Biden’s own negatives increasing. Trump has an amazing story to tell - Abraham Accords / peace breaking out instead of war, economy, lower utility prices from the tax cuts, bonuses, etc...so, so much accomplishment, and a compare and contrast on all of these things with Biden - that would skyrocket Trump’s positives. But that story was not told in 2020, and it hasn’t been told this cycle, either. Biden’s story is all many people are seeing - both his own story, and his story about Trump - they don’t attend rallies, they don’t listen to talk radio, they don’t visit Free Republic...they are at home living lives, watching the evening news and TV shows with these ads airing in heavy rotation to affect their perceptions.
If our side continues to be asleep at the switch, we may very well lose even in this kind of environment. That’s it. We cannot give the Democrats every advantage and then expect to have victory. Most fraud / irregularities will be on their side to begin with...we should not consistently allow ourselves to be outraised, outworked, outorganized, out marketed...but that’s what our side been doing for years.
Public opinion and voting is constantly influenced by news coverage and events and by campaign advertising and campaign effort. As always, what people say they intend to do -- even if they think they mean it -- is at best an imperfect indicator of what they will actually do. And that includes how they will vote.
Public polls are mostly crap because, in the real world, good survey data is expensive and is not given away for free. Many public polls are cooked up to push a story by their sponsors. And, even when public polling is done honestly, it is always a snapshot of what the public was thinking in the past. Adding up public polls may help correct bias but rarely offers good insights as to what will happen on election day.
The valuable internal polls as they are called are kept private by political parties, PACs, candidates, and major interest groups. The best internal polls are expensive, accurate, and reliable. Internal polls are used to inform key campaign advisers and decision makers.
In addition to polls, there are also sophisticated models of public opinion and voting behavior based on massive historical data and sophisticated statistical analysis and algorithms. These models are also confidential and tend to be treated with near oracular powers of prophecy.
To figure out what is actually happening in a political campaign watch the political players and donors. Leading Democrats and the news media are in a condition of agitation and near panic because internal polls and political models show that Biden is likely to lose badly and take down many Democrats with him.
Meanwhile, also based in large part on internal polling and political models, Republicans are having trouble not being gloating and gleeful at Biden's collapse. Trump, sensing that he is closing in for the kill, is unusually disciplined. Fox News just produced a poll that made Biden look relatively good. Why? The longer he stays in, the better for Fox News and the GOP.