Posted on 06/18/2024 11:46:49 PM PDT by mbrfl
” The Taiwanese will decide whether their independence is worth fighting for or not, not you or me. “
Yes they will. Prepare to be disappointed that your “War for Democracy” doesn’t happen.
My observation of the Taiwanese elite - many send their kids to overseas universities, so they have residency/citizenship in another country. I also saw lots in Vancouver - it’s not just Hong Kong there, its Taiwanese also. They often own businesses in both places.
My guess is that in the event of a chinese military action, the Taiwanese elite evacuate like the Afghan gov’t, and those that remain don’t fight a futile war.
>>”Yes they will. Prepare to be disappointed that your “War for Democracy” doesn’t happen.”
My war for Democracy? Where did you get that idea? The Taiwanese will decide for themselves. I have no particular stake in the outcome other than that I don’t like to see a free people lose their freedom. But if they decide to lay down their arms and submit, that’s their decision. As far as U.S. interests are concerned, it would be a blow, but not enough of one to justify war. And it would be one more example of why we need to decouple our economy from the Chicoms and become more economically self-sufficient.
I’ve noticed the Reverend is quite insane.
He and this other guy.
Both of them brought neocons out of the blue. And “your war” type stuff.
I think they rant about neocons in their sleep.
To answer your question there is absolutely nothing that can benefit China by attacking Taiwan. So it’s doubtful they would try.
Caveats are that Xi is actually crazy. And if the communist party is being overthrown by the Chinese people.
No.
They are already winning.
Slowly but surely, they are subverting the government bureaucracy, changing public perceptions and influencing the political parties in Taiwan.
Taiwan will eventually become theirs without a shot UNLESS we take immediate and large scale action to counter their operations.
Mainland China is doing in Taiwan what we did in Ukraine and in 2014 (Maiden) Ukraine became “ours.”
How these things really work: https://www.quora.com/Is-there-any-credible-evidence-that-Ukraines-2014-revolution-was-due-to-a-CIA-coup/answer/Kylee-Smith-83 (not everyone can do these kind of things, but PRC can)
They’re making it theirs through trade, NGO’s, the media, their big tech, their state department, military pressure...
https://thediplomat.com/2023/01/why-taiwans-main-opposition-party-cant-shake-its-pro-china-stance/
VOA is US government propaganda, flat out. This is how they spin it: https://www.voanews.com/a/china-friendly-opposition-politician-elected-legislative-speaker-in-taiwan/7466648.html
The PRC already has it’s hands deep inside Taiwan.
The PRC is very patient and able to sustain a long term agenda unlike us where every few years everything changes because of the government turn-over.
“ Taiwan will eventually become theirs without a shot UNLESS we take immediate and large scale action to counter their operations.”
It’s possible.
What kind of immediate and large scale action do you think it should be?
***The fighting is done with media, State Department, CIA, NSA, NGO’s, military assistance and foreign aid (strings attached), big tech, business deals (also strings attached).
—The conventional destructive war: The objective is the physical possession of terrain or destruction of an enemy unit (terrain or enemy orientation).
—The modern intel war: The objective is the possession of the political parties and key leaders, control over the media, channels of communications and bureaucracy.
Ask yourself this, what are the odds that Mr. Z in Ukraine is really just our puppet, given that we know that we were flat out picking who rose to power in that country? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoW75J5bnnE (literally choosing who rises to power). What does this tell you? 6 hours he gets a top national level prosecutor fired, and he brags about it: https://oversight.house.gov/timeline/ukraine-11/biden-firing-ukraine-prosecutor-clip/
By 2014 we had control over Ukraine. Think about this for a second, our big tech (linked to Intel) were 100% behind Mr. Z and it's well documented that they helped him win. Social media and Google played a critical role in the 2019 Ukrainian elections. Several of our NGO’s were backing him, and our NGO’s are not really non-government. His money came from a Ukrainian oligarch with ties to the US and US IC. Now consider this, Mr. Z is a young, completely politically inexperienced, not independently wealthy, a Jew in a nation with antisemitic undertones, and wins the elections. Do you think someone like that might be easy to control?
Ukraine is a perfect example where we did to Russia (2014 and Maiden was when we took over - literally overthrew the government we didn't like) what PRC is doing to us in Taiwan today: https://www.quora.com/Is-there-any-credible-evidence-that-Ukraines-2014-revolution-was-due-to-a-CIA-coup/answer/Kylee-Smith-83 (this Aussie freelance journalist spells out how we did this)
If we wait to long, Taiwan will slip away.
We do not want a conventional war, not even proxy as in the Ukraine. The PRC is far more militarily and economically powerful.
But we can fight an intel war and at a minimum drag things out in a worst case scenario or even flip it to our favor in a best case.
I think so, generally.
I like ideas.
I think that the goal has to be ending Chicom rule in China. That is the cause of the problem.
But CCP keep a tight lid on information there via old fashioned ways and technototalitarian ways.
Everyone there has phones and is on the firewall Ed Chicom network.
How to bypass that.
Yes,
But... this is not the Cold War where we have a massive Western alliance with an enemy that is economically suppressed, politically isolated, culturally shunned.
The PRC is the real monster out there. They are the only ones who really pose an existential threat to us: ability and interest/motive.
Russia is a “has-been,” where the truth is that it’s us that is going after them (taking away their frontier states, setting up along their border, violating promises made or simply withdrawing from treaties when it suits us...), not the other way around as presented in our media and by our political figures. We have the upper hand in every respect and we act with impunity.
This is simply factually BS: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Lloyd-J.-Austin-III-on-Putin.mp4?_=1 All he does is throw around buzzwords (sovereign, annex, unprovoked...) and where the same argument can be made against us, in fact even more so. We have attacked more countries, sponsored more coups, invaded more countries, have 10 times the war spending, export more weapons, have more troops outside our borders, are stationed in more countries around the world, occupy more nations (The Iraqi’s have asked us to leave about 20 times or so)... This is an emotional speech that appeals to a broad base of folks, but it’s junk.
With the PRC we are far more reserved (see naval blockade as an example) since they are economically and militarily (((FAR))) more powerful. We cannot economically contain them like we did the Soviets (the world which uses them as their manufacturing base or conducts major trade with them will not play along). Their industry and manufacturing capacity does not rival, but surpasses what we have by a huge margin. Their GDP rivals what we have and PPP already surpasses ours. Their population and number of military aged males surpasses us by more than a factor of 3. They have more patents annually in the sciences and engineering than we do. They pump out more folks annually with science and engineering degrees than we do.
***Perceptions lag behind reality.***
Example: When the US waged its civil war, the Union was the worlds most powerful army, the Confederacy the worlds second most powerful, and then came the various Europeans. The reality that the US already in the 1860s was an economic and military beast more powerful than ANY European nation, was not perceived by the average French, British, Spanish or German, neither by the people nor their leadership. However, at that point already, the US was bigger industrially, bigger in economic volume, had a bigger and more capable navy, more capable army, and were among the leaders world wide in science and engineering. In fact, I would argue, that public perceptions in Europe probably didn’t truly change until 80 years later in WWII when this reality soaked in.
Likewise today, we live with an outdated perception of the PRC, which in reality is already rivaling us:
—Science and engineering degrees by nation: https://cset.georgetown.edu/article/the-global-distribution-of-stem-graduates-which-countries-lead-the-way/
—PPP: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
—GDP: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) They are on track to pass us by 2030.
—Manufacturing: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/manufacturing-by-country and https://www.safeguardglobal.com/resources/top-10-manufacturing-countries-in-the-world-2023/
—True military spending: https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/China-Military-Budget-Graphic.png?x85095
—Science and engineering patents by nation: https://www.wipo.int/en/ipfactsandfigures/patents and https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/countries-new-patents/
***The point is not to criticize or minimize us, but to realize that this impacts the way forward. Do we really want a path of confrontation with someone that is an equal and by all accounts will be economically and militarily superior in a short time?
Like the Germans which practice what is called “Realpolitik,” we today find ourselves in a similar situation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Realpolitik. Regards PRC, our values are at odds with what is the most pragmatic course of action. This duality is in fact almost incomprehensible, since PRC is a single party communist regime (antithesis of democracy) with one of the worst human rights records imaginable, which does not care much about other nations sovereignty (Taiwan, Tibet, Myanmar)... So on the one hand we use these ideas of human rights, democracy and sovereignty to justify our military interventionism around the world (at our convenience), but on the other hand are in bed with one of the worst culprits regards these values on this planet, PRC.
Furthermore, it is us that largely is to blame for this. We were the first ones and the biggest guys knocking on PRCs door looking for cheap labor, tax and environmental regulatory avoidance 40+ years ago. We were the ones pushing for their WTO membership. We were the ones that were quick to export our manufacturing there, bringing with it management techniques, industrial equipment, investing in infrastructure, giving them the key to our IP (example Cisco which essentially gave the Chinese all their IP and today is getting beat by firms like Huawei on the international stage). Stalin was right: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/joseph_stalin_155812
***However, if the goal is to delay or stop PRC from taking over Taiwan, we need to wage an intel war, now. China is already present in Taiwan, they have some significant advantages, and if we don’t go full force soon, Taiwan will simply slip away without a shot fired.
“While they are safe behind thousands of miles of Pacific Ocean”
My over 5 years in the military year, and a half on Guam good enough for you?
No.
No more than McCain’s military service justified his stupidity.
How much did you serve?
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