You say wheat prices being down means Russia doesn’t matter, but the reality is the opposite. Wheat price is down in part because of Russian wheat production.
Russian wheat production is at record high levels. This is the most recent report from the USDA foreign agricultural service:
Apr 11 2023 | Russia Wheat: Record MY 2022/23 Harvest
USDA’s estimate of Russia wheat production for MY 2022/23 is a record 92.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 22 percent from last year and 18 percent above the 5-year average. The estimate includes 68.0 mmt of winter wheat and 24.0 mmt of spring wheat. Total wheat yield is estimated at a record 3.17 tons per hectare (t/ha), up 17 percent from last year and 12 percent above the 5-year average. Total harvested area is estimated at 29.0 million hectares (mha), up 5 percent from last year.
I agree that Russia does matter. But, how much? I went back and looked through my previous harvests over the years, and it appears that the yield of local harvests had more to do with the price than Russian exports.