People who think they can survive their own "first use" of nuclear weapons may be "wrong" - but can you guarantee that they know it? Or even care? It's more than a little entertaining to see westerners insisting they can predict the actions of foreign religious and political extremists; people who believe they can make such predictions, with consistent reliability, are also "wrong".
Personally, I think it is highly likely that nuclear weapons will be used again. It might happen in a way that average Americans do not expect, that might provide some measure of "plausible deniability" - picture a small freighter entering a port somewhere, and disappearing (along with the port city) in a mushroom cloud. Somebody would be blamed, but it might well be that country's enemy de jour, rather than the actual perpetrator...
I’m not your average American. I spent three years at Cheyenne Mountain, three years at PAVE PAWS and two years in Woomera Australia, 7 years at the Pentagon and 7 years in Air Force electronic security. I have literally war gamed nuclear war a thousand times. I was also a disaster preparedness senior NCO for my entire career.
You cannot win, you cannot catch the other guy with his pants down, and weapons can be fired without National Command Authority even. There are cases in cases...
Smart leaders know it.