True that. Key words being "long term". IMHO there's a long time to get the ROI -- too much time for things to break down.
Contrarily, if my system keeps working as it has been the past 3 years (really basing it on data from the past year and a half since I added onto it in the fall of 2022), with the expected decline in throughput based on the warranties of each component, and with a reasonable 3% inflation rate on the energy prices I'm mostly avoiding, then I'm looking at a payback timepoint of about 9 years from now (2033), which is 11 years after the upgrade. That means 9 years from now I'll have saved a total in energy costs equal to how much I still owe on the HELOC loan I took out to buy and install the equipment. But my solar panels will still have 14 more years (25 year warranty, guaranteed to still be producing 70% as much power in the final year) and my batteries will still have 8 more years (19 year / 50%). And because it was cheap enough to put into a low interest loan, what we're really talking about is I had little up-front cost (meaning, that money and all the money I save each month by not having sky high power, natural gas, and gasoline expenses is money that stays in our Roth IRAs growing tax free all this time until I eventually have to take some of it out to pay off the HELOC).
I just don't think I could have done that with the much larger cost of geothermal.
I think geothermal only works out IF you have your own excavator or backhoe. Meaning, you can do all the excavation yourself.
The other method is if you are already drilling a well for domestic water down 200’ into the ground. Then you run a loop in that 6” diameter hole in the ground.
When you decided on your solar array did you ever consider one of those free standing units that tracks the sun throughout the day?
I understand they are the most efficient available.
I assume they are also more expensive to install and maintain.