If Raisi Is Dead: Implications for the Islamic Republic of Iran
https://www.meforum.org/65899/if-raisi-is-dead-implications-for-the-islamic
Excerpt:
.....Under the current constitution, there is no mandate for a new election. If the president is dead or unable to perform his duties for longer than two months, the first vice president, the speaker of the parliament, and the chief justice, with the consent of the Supreme Leader, form a council to choose the succession mechanism.
In effect, this means Khamenei will decide. The Supreme Leader directly appoints the chief justice without parliamentary consent. Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i, the current chief justice, is a loyal foot soldier of Khamenei. The same is true of Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) general and former mayor of Tehran, who survived many rounds of Khamenei’s purges. The first vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, has been a low-profile figure who will certainly consent to the Supreme Leader’s will.
There are two possible outcomes. Either a new election is called, or Khamenei will dictate that the council chooses a single person to avoid an election in time of crisis. Ghalibaf, who has long aspired to the presidency, could finally get his wish.
.....Many Iranians saw Raisi’s presidency as an audition to succeed the 85-year-old cancer-stricken Khamenei as Supreme Leader, but Khamenei’s son Mojtaba also coveted the top position. The factional rivalry has simmered just below the surface. Raisi has long been the IRGC’s darling, but many in the clergy favor Mojtaba. This is why the powerful Qom seminary hired Mojtaba, who lacks scholarly credentials, to be a lecturer. By embracing Khamenei’s son, the seminary sought to signal its support for Raisi’s rival.
.....The IRGC will scramble to find a new person to elevate. After Aytaollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s death in 1989, Khamenei rose as a compromise candidate because other factions saw him as weak if not a buffoon. He survived the trial by fire and transformed himself into a long-reigning leader, carefully maneuvering to eliminate those who elevated him so they could not control him. Today, however, with the IRGC disproportionately powerful, it will be difficult to make similar compromises or cede ground to rival factions and individuals. Ghalibaf can be president, but he cannot rise to Supreme Leader because he is not a cleric.
While Mojtaba might rise up, a family succession would be problematic politically. After all, first Khomeini and then Khamenei argued that hereditary rule under the shah was illegitimate, and so they would be hard-pressed to sell hereditary leadership to the Iranian people now.
The wildcard, however, rests in a debate that raged in the first years after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The Islamic Republic does not require a unitary Supreme Leader. Theoretically, the constitution allows for a council of supreme leadership. This leads to a scenario that, once Khamenei dies, the state will argue that Khomeini and Khamenei were otherworldly men who reached the peak of wisdom and virtue. Their turbans can be filled now, the argument will go, only by the combined talents of a group of men.
Whatever happens next, however, Raisi’s “hard landing” will mark the first chapter in a game of musical chairs that will consume the Islamic Republic for months and will set the stage not only for the post-Raisi-era, but the post-Khamenei one as well.
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The Kenyan, ValJar and FJB buying Pepto-Bismol now that their man in Tehran is dead./s
Interesting times ahead in the Middle East, Iran may be in short term turmoil due to this and as such Hamas and Hezbollah may be weakened not only by Israel’s advances but by their benefactors in Iran turning inward to decide a replacement for the “Butcher”.
Interesting turn of events.
Funny how these Iranian leaders who were involved with Oct 7th keep running into fatal accidents. Another recent one was the Iranian military leaders blown up in the Iranian embassy Damascus, which was the proximate trigger of the Iranian drone attack on Israel.
Israel is giving them the same treatment as the murderers of Munich 1972. Capital punishment.
I still believe that if Hezbollah enters full warfare, and threatens to overrun Israeli Air defenses (possible, unfortunately, especially with Biden as POTUS), then Israel will attempt to go nuclear on Hezbollah and Iran.
” I see many Americans celebrating Raisi’s death.
Before you celebrate, consider the potential global implications.
If this was NOT an accident, this could be an Archduke Ferdinand-type moment and the entire world would be in serious danger.
Let’s hope it was just an accident. “
— Bioclandestine
***
For history refresher, BioC adds reference:
https://www.historyhit.com/significance-of-franz-ferdinands-assassination/
” I see many Americans celebrating Raisi’s death.
Before you celebrate, consider the potential global implications.
If this was NOT an accident, this could be an Archduke Ferdinand-type moment and the entire world would be in serious danger.
Let’s hope it was just an accident. “
— Bioclandestine
***
For history refresher, BioC adds reference:
https://www.historyhit.com/significance-of-franz-ferdinands-assassination/
This evening Christian prophetess, Amanda Grace, went over a few of her prophecies of the last three years foretelling of this event, mainly Ayatollah Khomeni's court will be struck and That will signal a major shift in various country's governments and in some plan for global governance.
That put me in mind of the somewhat obscure reasons for Oblama's and Bitem's Iran deal especially concerning nuclear weapons. Is something darkly sinister behind that apparent sell out of Israel - and ourselves? Was it somehow connected to a global cabal seeking ultimate power?
Amanda Grace has been consistent on the prophecy that God is not giving up on the U.S. as a Christian nation and that dark groups with secret sinister plans for our future will be foiled. She cites a statement of George Washington creating a covenant with Almighty God in establishing a Christian nation.
Some of the lady's predictions seem to take a few years to come to fruition... but she has an impressive track record overall. She is quick to point out something that I have noted here: the Lord uses people to accomplish His ends, not just Christian believers. I think, for example, that Kash Patel is a prime example of this, and I suppose Donald Trump - seemingly a somewhat loose believer.
As for the Islamic Republic of Iran, she seemed to indicate its downfall - and the reappearance of Iran's heretofore 'underground' church.