RCP average in 2016 Clinton 47.0 Trump 43.4
Trump was never ahead in the average in Michigan in 2016 either but managed to win.
Clinton 47% Trump 47.3 final vote totals
This year.. Trump has been AHEAD by several points for 6 months! So he is outperforming 2016 and 2020 in Michigan!
If Trump wins Michigan he only needs ONE of the following to win the electoral college (Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania)
Any of those 4 + Michigan = Trump victory.
Or just Pennsylvania alone.