At any one moment either side in a war can have the initiative, winning or losing comes at the end of the war, like winning or losing a football game comes at the end of the game.
During the war, your questions are as sensible as asking if one team in a football game should not get water since they are winning at the moment, or if one team just fumbled the ball and lost possession how are they still a threat to win?
I hope you aren't really as dumb as your strawman questions suggest.
It isn’t a strawman.
You guys claim Russia is losing then turn around and say they’re an existential threat to Europe.
If they’re losing, then by matter of fact they are not.