Update on the conflict in Ukraine for April 8, 2024…
- Ukrainian forces continue losing territory as arms, ammunition, and manpower shortages continue to grow;
- Ammunition "initiatives" across Europe claiming to have found "millions" of artillery rounds gloss over important factors such as caliber, interoperability, and the condition of rounds held in storage;
- At best, the initiatives will temporarily provide Ukraine with enough ammunition to match previous rates of fire, but other critical shortages will continue to grow meaning the vector sum of the fighting will still favor Russian forces;
- Attempts by the US and Europe to intervene in Ukraine as a means of checking Russian advances may end in even worse defeat for the collective West;
- Attempts by Ukraine to target Russian oil refineries have led Western analysts to falsely conflate fuel export bans with perceived damage and repair efforts;
- Claims that Russia is unable to repair energy production infrastructure are based on the same flawed reasoning that led many Western analysts to assume Russia's military industrial base would be crippled following Western sanctions;