A big blob of storms over TN into southern IL is delaying moisture return into the OH valley and blow off clouds
Will they clear out in time for later?
If not instability will not be as high as forecast in Ohio
Time will tell
Yep
UNCERTAINTY IS RELATIVELY HIGH FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE ONGOING
TN-KY-WV CONVECTION. THE STORMS APPROACHING MIDDLE TN AND SOUTHERN
KY WILL TEND TO REINFORCE THE EARLIER OUTFLOW, WHICH WILL LIKELY
INTERFERE WITH/LIMIT DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD PARTS OF
OH (ESPECIALLY EASTERN OH). THE CORRIDOR OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO SOUTHEAST MO (IMMEDIATELY WEST OF
THE TN STORMS) SUGGESTS THAT AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TOWARD
SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IN BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON, AND SOUTHWEST OH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR/LONG HODOGRAPHS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL
TROUGH/JET AND A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS,
INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES WHERE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
WARMING/MOISTENING OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE NORTHEASTERN EXTENT OF THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT INTO OH IS MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH, BUT WILL TRIM THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE MDT RISK AREA AND
EXPAND SOUTH SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OUTFLOW CORRIDOR ENHANCING THE
TORNADO THREAT ON THE MESOSCALE ACROSS KY