Yes, I think Trump will be successful on appeal, The appeal is a given. But to get there, the immediate problem is he either has to post the $450 million judgement in cash with the court which he does not currently have or post a bond. The only immediate issue for him right now is getting the bond issued. Insurers would not take all illiquid real estate as collateral. They wanted some liquidity in the mix..This will introduce some liquidity, albeit with the 6 month proviso. Having spent a career on Wall Street as a new issues syndicate manager, I know from experience, it is exceptionally rare for an IPO to lose 80% of its value in 6 months even in a bad general market. If the SPAC that serves as the shell holding the shares waives the 6 month holding requirement which they may do next week, then the 6 months is not an issue, although he does not want to take a bath dumping a large number of shares overnight. He will have to sell off pieces over weeks or do a private transaction with an institution or wealthy investor.
I am no lawyer, he has to post a bond according to NY law. He may be able to argue in federal court that this state law is a due process violation, stripping him of his rights and privileges as a citizen.
The SPAC may grant him a waiver but as a new issue it will be difficult. As you said, some forms of equity swaps may be possible off the exchange. Or something even more complicated. I understand it’s a going concern, but how do the big investors see it as a long term investor? Is it really worth $7 billion or whatever the market cap is?