You better go get a law license...ASAP. Or at least attend a few semesters of law school. The “FR School of Law” has very few that have ever passed a bar exam. And the rate of prediction of outcomes is abysmal - worse than Judge Napolitano.
I interpret what you are saying as more proof our legal system is seriously dysfunctional. Common sense just doesn't apply within it's structure.
You are more able to predict the outcome of any case simply by learning who appointed the Judge rather than by any fact of law.