Why Ukraine Won’t Be Able to “Dig In”
- After the defeated 5 month Ukrainian offensive and with admissions in the Western media that Ukraine’s cross-river offensive in Kherson is a failure, a growing number Ukrainian and Western military and political leaders are talking about Ukraine going on the defensive;
- Ukraine seeks to build Russian-style defensives along the line of contact and use 2024 to build up combat power;
- The main problem facing this strategy is that Ukraine has already in many places dug in since as early as 2014 and yet Russia has been able to overpower and displace Ukrainian forces regardless;
- ussia’s successful defeat of the 2023 Ukrainian offensive was owed as much to its superior firepower as it was to the construction of defensive positions;
- While Russia will not be able to conduct “big arrow” offensives without suffering heavy losses for the same reason Ukraine cannot, the existence of mines covered by artillery, FPV drones and other systems that can target Russian forces as they attempt to breach minefields;
- Russia can continue its war of attrition while placing growing pressure all along the line of contact and exploiting anywhere opportunities begin to form;
- Western commentators continue to interpret the conflict in mere 2 dimensions rather than the 4 dimensions actually required to understand Russia’s long-term strategy and why it has worked;
- The 4th dimension being time, it is important to understand what Ukraine’s combat power will look like a year from now following concerted Russian efforts to target and irreversibly diminish specific capabilities (like air defense, artillery, counter battery fire, and military aviation);
Russia has been unable to concentrate for attacks, operationally. They are too vulnerable to Ukrainian firepower to do that. That is critical. But even tactically they have problems.
Its a plausible strategy to push across the front, in order to eventually find a “weak spot”. This is a very long front given the forces deployed, and this applies to both sides. Over most of the front the local defense is going to amount to no more than a line of outposts. But that is in the main beside the point. What can they do if they find a “weak spot”?
Both sides have the tools to quickly blast force concentrations with high tech weapons. Both sides can quickly move reserves to match the local enemy. Advances can only move forward with small units, in fear of crushing casualties. The tip of the spear of any force exploiting a “weak spot” is, perforce, very weak. It can only be pushed in very slowly, abrading away very fast. This will leave the “weak spot” no longer weak. And Russia will leave casualties behind.
There is therefore no option for a war of maneuver.
You are correct in that the only option for Russia is a war of attrition. The question is whether Russia can sustain that. So far it has been coming up short.