My analysis is that this war is just like WWI on the Western Front and the year is 1917.
2024 is likely going to be an important year. It depends on who's going to win the election? Biden? Trump? So the Ukrainians and the Russians will fight until January 20, 2025.
I agree. Putin won’t make peace with Ukraine before he knows the results of our November 2024 presidential election.
President Trump’s been sharply critical of U.S. support for Ukraine and a Trump victory could upend Western support.
Trump has made some interesting comments in regards to the war, esp his I can end it in 24 hours, and that was interpreted to mean cut aid to Ukraine and Russia keeps what they have.
Not sure that is what he means and it is always dangerous to assume you know what he is thinking
He has in the past said things like do x and if you don’t you won’t like the response….
What if he said putin remove yourself from Ukrainian lands or we are sending 500 f-16s, 1000 abrams, 2000 Bradley’s and all the atacms we have, I know pretty out there, but Trump has been known to do “out there” things, oh and he will make Russia pay for it…..
Meanwhile, while Washington does what Washington does, Europe and others have stepped up assistance
I agree 2024 will be an interesting year on many fronts
Additionally it has been reported that 39% of Russian budget is for the war and “internal security”. Wouldn’t be surprised if it is around 50 and will go up. As that percentage goes up, spending on other areas go down. Russian internals is a different beast, but the federation is not held together by mutual interests and respect, there is ethnic russia(Moscow abs St. Petersburg ) and then the rest, and the”rest” is getting restless. Albania is a good example
Russia began the war with a large standing army, lots of soviet legacy weapons, good rainy day find, nice revenues from petro industry and military sales
Fast forward almost 2 years, first line military has been degraded pretty good, stockpiles of advanced weapons systems depleted significantly , Soviet legacy stocks being used up at an increasing rate, went from military goods exporter to importer, wealth fund being drained, already issued with civilian manpower deficiencies accelerated by several mobilizations and crypto mobilizations and loses from the war, net income from petro industry way down(gross does not=net), loses of large and expensive weapons systems are nearly impossible for Russia to replace, stationing of troops and equipment in nether regions of Russian federation have been severely drawn down to feed the war…., all of this does not bode well for Russia, doesn’t mean ukranian victory on their terms but internationally and internally Russia is not doing well
This winter will be interesting,(can they support and sustain their troops in the field, my opinion a very cold winter will be harder on Russian troops) and if western weapons like aircraft, atacms, and glsdbs and increased artillery ammunition materialize in numbers, will get more interesting as many of the Russian advantages will be tempered