They have a track record of publicly confirmed failure as far back as you want.
-surprised by the Korean War
-Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia follies
-surprised by Yom Kippur war
-totally missed the collapse of the Shah
-totally missed the USSR Afghanistan invasion
-wildly overestimated the USSR economy
-911
-”weapons of mass destruction”
-ISIS is a JV Team
-...
You omit the larger picture, that after the era of satellites and massive electronic surveillance, CIA and other intel analysts looking at the facts usually got things right but the nation’s highest leadership too distorted or disregarded the intelligence. Or, in some cases, the CIA was conned, as it seems to have been by our supposed Saudi allies in the lead up to 9/11 or, as to the size of the Soviet economy, they believed the official Soviet statistics.