Posted on 11/17/2023 11:35:43 AM PST by Red Badger
“Something is happening—but you don’t know what it is.”
I have previously resisted replying to you belittling personal insults. Grow up, learn how the world works and don’t keep getting fooled.
Good Bye
Even Helion says IF!
........
Of course.
Why don’t you go to COP28.
That way you’ll be minding your business.
Yeah, you’re right. I have been insulting. Apologies.
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I’ve done some research which you might find to be helpful.
Light water reactors went through a huge period of innovation from very roughly 1940-1980. But for better or worse three mile island and the new safety measures it caused—along with goverment cut backs in r&d funding during the 70’s —ended the innovative phase of Light water reactors. Changes subsequently were incremental.
At the same time there there was a 70 year period from roughly the 1900 to the 1970’s where basic research in physics provide a constant stream of new mathmatical tools that could be used across many industries including nuclear. That came to an end sometime in the 1970’s when the theoretical physicists fell in love with the beauty of string theory and quantum gravity. This stuff might in the long run prove to be true—but in practice has not produced much in the way of tools in the way that the physics of the previous seventy years was able to do so.
What I’m getting to is that if you are about my age or 70 years old—you came on the scene just as the nuclear industry was ending its period of innovation. So you have never seen rapid innovation before.
I learned an interesting thing. The guy who held the original patents on the light water reactor was Alvin Weinberg. He also developed the first Liquid flouride thorium reactors —the LFTR reactors. He said the LFTR reactors were superior to the light water reactors. This research program was killed and mothballed in the 70’s. Weinberg went to his grave saying that the USA had made a terrible mistake in killing those reactors. Edward Teller seemed to confirm this as his last paper in the late 1990’s or early 2000’s was on LFTR reactors.
The LFTR reactors are now back in development —but they’re in the slow lane in federal labs behind light water reactors based SMR’s like Nucor.
You probably know all this stuff better than I do.
My point is that since you have never experienced rapid technological development—you might want to chase down the fusion research in all its angles, go their conferences, meet the principle researchers, executives and the government people and private investors involved with them.... and write a book on it. That’s a lot of people.
But if this this story is true—its a story worth telling. You may have the chops for it.
One way or the other it’ll do your heart good.
“Yeah, you’re right. I have been insulting. Apologies.”
I accept.
I suggest you research the cold fusion and Theranos scams.
I have sent you lots and you still have the same position so nothing else will convince you otherwise.
“My point is that since you have never experienced rapid technological development—”
Research ITER. $22 Billion and counting. Some say it may cost $45 billion. ITER will not produce electricity nor can it run continuously.
They originally had a 2025 target now it is 2035.
absolutely agree that there have been a lot of dead ends.
no one believes that ITER will amount to anything more than a declaration of faith in fusion. (which in some ways is very important—because where there is a will there is a way.)
there is still a worldwide group that studies cold fusion but again they seem on the fast track to nowhere.
my vote for the most likely to succeed fission group is one from indonesia. they’re testing in american labs. they’re doing some version of g4 fission. They’re already working on a plant to mass produce them and get costs down to the .02@kwh range. I think they want have them fully built to put them on barges next to coastal cities.
I would have absolutely agreed with your take on all these fusion start ups maybe 18 months ago. But something is happening. liken it to a warm front that passes over a half dozen states in the summertime. the warm front generates thunderstorms along its edge. liken those thunderstorms to the small fusion start ups that are popping up all over. liken too the convergence of a couple systems/techniques/technologies/tools to the warm front passing over a couple states in summer that generate the thunderstorms/fusion companies.
another words—the proliferation of fusion companies is not about the companies but rather the ideas/systems/techniques/technologies/tools that generate them.
None of these do I understand well. Nor do I have the time or expertise to understand well.
But you do.
“my vote for the most likely to succeed fission group is one from indonesia. they’re testing in american labs. they’re doing some version of g4 fission.”
G4 is Generation 4. It is a timeline, not a type of fission.
“I would have absolutely agreed with your take on all these fusion start ups maybe 18 months ago. But something is happening.”
They keep revising their milestone projections.
“no one believes that ITER will amount to anything more than a declaration of faith in fusion. “
ITER’s mission was only to produce a good faith reaction. The whole world and $40 billion for goof faith by 2025.
And you Ave faith that a startup and a billions dollars will have a licensed power plant by 2028.
NO WAY!
Whatever happened to that LENR Rossi character?
Or is this a different unicorn?
What’s significant about this is the collapsed time frames for their expectations. Likely like a lot of Musk deadlines—they’ll blow past this one—but they’re not talking about getting the job done in 10-20 years.
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Commonwealth Fusion predicts it will have the world’s first net-energy fusion device by 2025 and is already building a factory in Devens to make the machine.
Work is in high gear as Richard Holcomb, director of construction and facilities, walks the 47 acre site in Devens.
https://www.wbur.org/news/2021/12/02/massachusetts-fusion-power
Professor Dennis Whyte, director of the Plasma Science and Fusion Center at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said the U.S. has taken a smart approach on fusion by advancing research and designs by a range of companies working toward a pilot-scale demonstration within a decade.
“It doesn’t guarantee a particular company will get there, but we have multiple shots on goal,” he said, referring to the Energy Department’s milestone-based fusion development program. “It’s the right way to do it, to support what we all want to see: commercial fusion to power our society” without greenhouse gas emissions.
On other topics, Granholm said that depending on whether the U.S. government shuts down or not, the Biden administration could announce in October details on an $8 billion hydrogen hub program that will be funded by the bipartisan infrastructure law.
A hub is meant to be a network of companies that produce clean hydrogen and of the industries that use it — heavy transportation, for example — and infrastructure such as pipelines and refueling stations. States and companies have teamed up to create hub proposals.
What’s significant about this is the collapsed time frames for their expectations. Likely like a lot of Musk deadlines—they’ll blow past this one—but they’re not talking about getting the job done in 10-20 years.
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Commonwealth Fusion predicts it will have the world’s first net-energy fusion device by 2025 and is already building a factory in Devens to make the machine.
Work is in high gear as Richard Holcomb, director of construction and facilities, walks the 47 acre site in Devens.
https://www.wbur.org/news/2021/12/02/massachusetts-fusion-power
A reasonable question to ask is...what is collapsing the time frames for the development of fusion energy.
Well first in line is AI.
So this is the question that I googled.
how has ai influenced fusion energy research and development
Answer
AI has had a significant impact on fusion energy research and development in several ways:
Data Analysis and Prediction: Fusion experiments generate vast amounts of data from sensors and diagnostic instruments. AI techniques, such as machine learning, help scientists analyze this data more efficiently and extract valuable insights. AI algorithms can identify patterns, anomalies, and correlations in the data that might be challenging for humans to detect. This accelerates the process of understanding plasma behavior and optimizing fusion reactions.
Control and Automation: Fusion reactors are highly complex and require precise control to maintain the conditions necessary for sustained fusion reactions. AI can be used to automate and optimize control systems. Reinforcement learning algorithms, for example, can learn to control plasma parameters and adapt to changing conditions in real-time. This improves reactor stability and performance.
Plasma Modeling: AI can enhance plasma modeling and simulation efforts. Neural networks and other AI techniques can be used to improve the accuracy and speed of simulations, allowing scientists to explore various scenarios and design strategies more efficiently. This is particularly useful for predicting and mitigating disruptions, which can be a major challenge in fusion research.
Materials Discovery: Developing materials that can withstand the extreme conditions inside a fusion reactor, such as high temperatures and radiation, is crucial. AI-driven materials discovery approaches can help identify promising candidate materials with desired properties faster than traditional trial-and-error methods. This can accelerate the development of materials for fusion reactors.
Optimization of Experimental Design: AI can assist in the design of fusion experiments. It can suggest optimal experimental configurations, parameters, and setups to maximize the chances of achieving successful fusion reactions. This reduces the cost and time associated with experimental trials.
Remote Operation and Maintenance: AI-powered robotics and remote operation systems can be used to operate and maintain fusion reactors, especially in cases where the environment is hazardous for humans. These systems can perform tasks like inspection, maintenance, and repair more efficiently and safely.
Energy Production Forecasting: AI can be employed to predict the energy output and performance of fusion reactors, aiding in their integration into the energy grid. Accurate forecasting helps grid operators manage the fluctuating energy supply from fusion reactors effectively.
Optimization of Magnetic Confinement: In magnetic confinement fusion, AI can be used to optimize the magnetic field configurations and confinement strategies to achieve higher plasma stability and longer confinement times.
In summary, AI has the potential to revolutionize fusion energy research and development by improving data analysis, control systems, simulations, materials discovery, and overall reactor performance. It can accelerate progress towards achieving practical and sustainable fusion energy as a clean and abundant power source for the future.
A reasonable question to ask is...what is collapsing the time frames for the development of fusion energy.
Well first in line is AI.
So this is the question that I googled.
how has ai influenced fusion energy research and development
Answer
AI has had a significant impact on fusion energy research and development in several ways:
Data Analysis and Prediction: Fusion experiments generate vast amounts of data from sensors and diagnostic instruments. AI techniques, such as machine learning, help scientists analyze this data more efficiently and extract valuable insights. AI algorithms can identify patterns, anomalies, and correlations in the data that might be challenging for humans to detect. This accelerates the process of understanding plasma behavior and optimizing fusion reactions.
Control and Automation: Fusion reactors are highly complex and require precise control to maintain the conditions necessary for sustained fusion reactions. AI can be used to automate and optimize control systems. Reinforcement learning algorithms, for example, can learn to control plasma parameters and adapt to changing conditions in real-time. This improves reactor stability and performance.
Plasma Modeling: AI can enhance plasma modeling and simulation efforts. Neural networks and other AI techniques can be used to improve the accuracy and speed of simulations, allowing scientists to explore various scenarios and design strategies more efficiently. This is particularly useful for predicting and mitigating disruptions, which can be a major challenge in fusion research.
Materials Discovery: Developing materials that can withstand the extreme conditions inside a fusion reactor, such as high temperatures and radiation, is crucial. AI-driven materials discovery approaches can help identify promising candidate materials with desired properties faster than traditional trial-and-error methods. This can accelerate the development of materials for fusion reactors.
Optimization of Experimental Design: AI can assist in the design of fusion experiments. It can suggest optimal experimental configurations, parameters, and setups to maximize the chances of achieving successful fusion reactions. This reduces the cost and time associated with experimental trials.
Remote Operation and Maintenance: AI-powered robotics and remote operation systems can be used to operate and maintain fusion reactors, especially in cases where the environment is hazardous for humans. These systems can perform tasks like inspection, maintenance, and repair more efficiently and safely.
Energy Production Forecasting: AI can be employed to predict the energy output and performance of fusion reactors, aiding in their integration into the energy grid. Accurate forecasting helps grid operators manage the fluctuating energy supply from fusion reactors effectively.
Optimization of Magnetic Confinement: In magnetic confinement fusion, AI can be used to optimize the magnetic field configurations and confinement strategies to achieve higher plasma stability and longer confinement times.
In summary, AI has the potential to revolutionize fusion energy research and development by improving data analysis, control systems, simulations, materials discovery, and overall reactor performance. It can accelerate progress towards achieving practical and sustainable fusion energy as a clean and abundant power source for the future.
6 months ago AI researchers were saying that they are at the elbow of exponential growth.
It appears that what set off the soap opera at OpenAI was that researchers sent a letter to the board of OpenAI warning of the dangers of what they were seeing in their research. They had just developed internally the first “artificial general intelligence”.
that spooked the board and set events into motion.
There are a lot of youtubes that discuss this. If you’re into geeky detail—here is one. The big thing is that huge strides have been made in terms being able to do math, invent math and apply math to novel situations and more.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3d0kk88IE8c
In practice, what this means is that in a year or four—new math will become available for fusion research and developement—on an ongoing basis—as it was prior to the 1970’s for fission r&d. Only this time, the rate of development for new math will be exponential on a scale that frightens people....as it seems to frighten the geeky podcaster above.
Source?”
Not responsive to your question:
“AI can be used ...”
“AI can be used ...”
“AI can be used ...”
“AI can be used ...”
“AI can be used ...”
“What’s significant about this is the collapsed time frames for their expectations. “
Huh?
In 2015 Helion was THREE years away.
In 2023 Helion says FIVE years away.
What else is accelerating the development of fusion?
Here is an article dated 2021.
Five years ago a tokamak at MIT’s Plasma Science and Fusion Center produced, for a few milliseconds, the intense pressure and temperature needed to make fusion. The Center’s director, Dennis Whyte, says the magnets used in that device, were made with ordinary copper wire.
“And when that turned on to produce that confining magnetic field, it consumed over 200 million watts of electrical power,” he says. “So you say, ‘Well, what a great scientific achievement; hotter than the center of the sun’ ... but it’s hard to imagine it as a practical power source because you’re using so much electricity to generate the magnetic field.”
But the new high temperature superconducting magnet, like those that will be used in Commonwealth Fusion’s SPARC device, will consume just 20 watts,1/10,000,000th the amount of energy as the copper wire magnets. It means far lower costs to operate the company’s device, making commercial fusion financially feasible.
“The idea is you get one major disruptive technological breakthrough and it speeds everything else up,” Whyte says. “But the technology didn’t exist until it did a few weeks ago ... here.”
https://www.wbur.org/news/2021/12/02/massachusetts-fusion-power
Another reasonable question to ask is—why is fusion energy facing so few regulatoy challenges?
Answer:
Inside the tokamak, the plasma fuel will be five times hotter than the center of the sun. But it’s delicate, so there’s nothing to be afraid of, says Mumgaard.
“Some people think of fusion as like lava … you know, hot like lava ... but that’s actually not what it is,” he says. “It’s actually closer like a candle in the wind.”
The conditions to make fusion in a tokamak are so difficult to create and sustain, which makes the devices inherently safe, says Mumgaard. They can’t melt down.
“If you think about it, stars are out in space, they don’t touch anything,” he says. “And that’s what you have to basically build in a fusion machine. And the minute it touches something, it doesn’t melt through like lava. It extinguishes like a flame.”
https://www.wbur.org/news/2021/12/02/massachusetts-fusion-power
What else is accelerating the development of fusion power.
Answer: money
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MIT and Commonwealth Fusion Systems have formed a unique corporate-academic collaboration. They share a common agenda — making fusion energy viable — but have separate agendas. The company wants to make money; the University wants discoveries about the fundamental energy that powers the universe.
“Fusion is the greatest technological challenge that I think humanity has ever undertaken,” says British plasma physicist Arthur Turrell. In his new book, “The Star Builders and The Race to Power the Planet,” he says we are closer than ever in achieving net energy from fusion devices and credits the emergence of private sector funding. “It’s not really about time,” he said in a recent interview. “It’s about the investment that we’re putting into it as a society and the kind of priority that we give it and the number of people who are working on it.”
The race to make commercial fusion heats up
There are about two dozen companies competing to produce fusion energy devices, promising unlimited safe power, free of carbon emissions.
Helion in Everett, Washington is backed by tech billionaire Peter Theil. Jeff Bezos is behind General Fusion in British Columbia, Canada, and Bill Gates has invested in Commonwealth Fusion Systems, which will have 300 workers when the Devens is
Mumgaard predicts that, by 2025, SPARC will produce ten times more energy than it consumes, and the company will have a commercial fusion device, capable of powering a town, in the early 2030s. He says the company will be selling them around the world.
https://www.wbur.org/news/2021/12/02/massachusetts-fusion-power
“But the new high temperature superconducting magnet, like those that will be used in Commonwealth Fusion’s SPARC device, will consume just 20 watts”
Assuming ZERO losses it would take three years just to build up the 100 Mj of stored energy!
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