The prophets of Baal cutting themselves to make their predictions come true.
Posted on 11/13/2023 2:00:09 PM PST by MtnClimber
I remember after Katrina that this was the first of the mega hurricanes that would strike the continental United States.
They said hurricanes may not necessarily be more numerous, but they would definitely be much more powerful.
The prophets of Baal cutting themselves to make their predictions come true.
Otis (Acapulco) does not factor into discussion as it was an east Pacific ‘cane not an Atlantic ‘cane. Discussion is about predictions in N Atlantic basin.
Fact is, more storms but fewer ‘canes, count is 20/7/3 for named storms, ‘canes, and major canes. Normal is about 18/9/3 in recent decades. So it was a bit of a toss up as to forecasts being improved or made worse mid-season.
One more named storm is probably going to occur, so final count of 21/7/3 or 21/8/3 if it gets to be a ‘cane.
Overall, an unimpressive N Atl season, despite a large count, many of named storms were never close to land, in particular, U.S. landfalls.
Lots of what were once called “fish storms”
Storms that were outside the normal shipping lanes and never hit landfall.
0-10 day Weather forecasts seem to be totally independent from Seasonal forecasts and independent from 30-100 yr Climate forecasts.
It’s a mess.
That was a bold prediction!
30-40-30 is a standard uncertainty spread in decision analysis that accentuates the tails. The 10-50-90 distribution that accentuates the mean uses 25-50-25 probabilities.
-PJ
The weather changes. Who knew?
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