Y = cumulative average time (or cost) per unit
X = cumulative number of units produced
a = time (or cost) required to produce 1st unit
b = slope of the function
Oopsie!In the original the formula itself is a graphic which doesn’t copy over directly, and I forgot to check on that, getting bogged down in the details of my discussion instead.
Understand, Biden has been the disaster we expected, and the “Inflation Reduction” Act does not address inflation and is strictly, pretty much, a pro-electric vehicle law. Biden is responsible for the increase in fuel prices - and for seriously bad foreign and military policy.
But we are where we are. Namely, Biden policy has accelerated humanity’s learning, specifically in the electric vehicle space. And the “Inflation Reduction” Act is still in being, still promoting EV adoption. But, it’s a funny thing.Like all auto companies outside of Detroit, Tesla is non-union. And Tesla does not, in any appreciable way,
advertisesubsidize the MSM. And under Elon Musk,Initially Tesla was the only one to make electric cars, essentially, since the gas buggies took over from horses (and steam and electric cars) about eleven decades ago. And Tesla has never lost its lead in the EV space. Not even close, all protestations of Biden and the MSM to the contrary notwithstanding. So the situation is that Musk is a big Climate Change guy, specifically in Tesla’s EV pioneering and also Tesla’s solar power and mass battery storage industries. Biden’s policies promote everything Tesla does, while Biden and the MSM hate and demote Tesla itself.
The upshot is that the MSM basically hides Tesla. When they talk about Dealers’ reports that EV’s don’t sell, they are evading the fact that although Tesla sales have been on a virtual Moore’s Law pace (tho guiding for a slower growth due to economy uncertainty in the present quarter or even year), Tesla does not sell through a dealer network. So “dealers” deal in any brand other than Tesla. EVs other than Tesla don’t sell in America. And Teslas mostly don’t sell in red states.
But Tesla’s Model Y suv is the largest selling vehicle - EV or other - in China, and in Europe, and in the world as a whole. Tesla’s Model 3 sedan is available at a price slightly lower than the median car (of any type) sale in America. And the “Inflation Reduction” Act will make the payment on a Tesla more obviously even lower next year. Even tho Tesla, the profit margin leader in the whole auto manufacturing space but one, doesn’t need the IRA, Musk likes the IRA and is far from averse to exploiting it for Tesla’s benefit (while Biden et al grit their teeth and pay up).
The fact that the cheapest Tesla isn’t significantly lower (apart from the federal subsidy) than the median sale price of a car in America maps to the fact that Tesla is not yet competing in the lower half of the unit volume of the American car market. But Elon Musk’s style of management is fantastically aggressive at driving down cost. “Not yet” is far from “forever."
Ping.