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To: MNJohnnie

Correct. This is NOT about Biden districts.

I carefully counted only 8 seats of that 25 that had a margin of victory under 5%.

17 of those are safe seats.


16 posted on 10/20/2023 1:58:25 PM PDT by Owen (.)
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To: Owen
That's simpleton thinking. One has to dive pretty deep into the characteristics of each district to see where the "win" came from.

Take a look at Rep. Tony Gonzales (I picked it at random), for example:

His district is majority Latino. He stomped his opponent in 2022(!), but won by far less, 4 points, in 2020. Trump won the district by 1.8 points, but all the "raters" on Ballotpedia show the district as "lean Democratic" (2 ratings) or "tilt Democratic" (1 rating).

Also take a look at his votes on many different issues, look at other contests within the district, etc. (Yes, this takes time.)

Conclusion: This should be a safe seat in 2024 because Gonzales is a moderate who lines up well with his district. There's literally nothing on the district level to indicate a deep red (or recently became associated with deep red) candidate can win that district.

I've lived in a "moderate" district myself for many years, and while the details are quite different (and probably more typical), it is very very difficult for a deep red House candidate to win here.

If you persist in indulging fantasies of hordes of deep red voters in moderate districts*, that's up to you. It's not a good way to fix fundamental problems, however.

Now, likely some of the 25 districts are after detailed analysis deep red but elect moderates. Please list some, including serious analysis. I agree those need "attention", but, how do we whittle those 25 (or more) down to 3?

25 posted on 10/20/2023 5:13:12 PM PDT by Paul R. (Bin Laden wanted Obama killed so the incompetent VP, Biden, would become President!)
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