There is a mathematical way to win without those states, it’s not impossible but very difficult.
In 2020 Trump won 232 electoral college votes.
If he were to win the exact same states and districts, he would win 236 electoral college votes, due to census results that allowed states like Florida to gain 2 extra votes.
In 2024, if Trump were to win Georgia and Arizona, he would win 263 electoral college votes.
Georgia has 16 votes and Arizona 11.
Two states currently have Republican Governors, Nevada and Virginia.
Nevada has 6 electoral college votes, Virginia has 13
Win Georgia, Arizona and Virginia and Trump wins.
Win Nevada and one extra congressional district in Maine or Nebraska which awards electoral college votes by congressional districts versus winner take all, then Trump wins.
It’s very doable, but difficult when Republicans appear to be experts in shooting themselves in the foot.
What has the MAGA crowd done since 2020, trashed everyone in Georgia and in Arizona and the mere mention of Glenn Youngkin running for POTUS has started the trashing of him.
Kari Lake went so far as to tell McCain voters to “Get the Hell out of her rallies”, not a smart move IMO.
If that damaged is not repaired by election day 2024, then forget about winning.
Because they were there to sabotage her and her campaign, resulting in the theft of Gov-elect Lake's victory and awarding of it to the losing candidate, Hobbs.
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