Only in a fair election
We are not aware of what California and NY alignment exists.
Biden’s 2020 numbers showed 7 million vote national advantage. California was 5M of that. NY was 2 M of that. Illinois 1M.
Trump’s Texas advantage did not exceed even 1M. Only 6%. Nor Florida. Only 3%. There are no Trump states that equivalently offset the enormity of the CA and NY disparity.
These national polls are hugely skewed to just a few blue states. And they should be. That’s where population is.
The point being, Trump lost all the swing states and given that state concentration in the popular vote it is essentially impossible for that to have happened.