I’m often astonished by these threads.
I’ve tried to educate. It winds up forgotten.
1) This is the first war in the history of the world in which both sides have access to excellent near real-time satellite recon. There are no ground forces surprises. Line of sight for orbital assets provide a slight Russian advantage in that their data downlinks direct to the relevant analysis centers without any delays for the relays to NRO or Langley.
2) Russia’s surface area guarantees, maybe best to make that Guarantees, their oil will run out last. There is nothing anyone can do about this. Geology decides it, not politics.
3) Both sides understand Fast Fourier Transforms. Most, maybe all, of you guys do not.
4) There really need not be any taking sides. Ukraine is going to “win”. There will be a military coup that removes Zelensky, the senior military people doing the coup are old classmates of their Russian counterparts and they will invite them to Kiev. Arrangements will be made to have all Ukraine forces lay down their weapons. All CIA and MI6 people will be executed. The Ukraine Junta will be left in charge, withdrawing all applications to the EU or NATO and the Russian forces will rotate out, replaced by rebuilding people for the Donbas and Odessa. And then, the media will speak.
5) The media will announce a great Ukraine victory because Russia withdraws all its forces. Ukraine refugees in Europe will return home to their country currently under the governance of Ukraine military. It will be sold as a magnificent victory. There will be absolutely no one noticing the Donbas oblasts remain part of Russia. Certainly not commenting on it. The Russian troops withdraw and that will be victory.
6) So there really is no point in posting these pro Ukraine imaginings. They are going to win, no matter what happens.
This war has been going on for since 2014. The US/EU coup of the duly elected government of Ukraine led by Victoria Nuland led to the separatist movement in the Donbas and the unopposed Russian invasion and annexation of Crimea. The Obama/Biden Administration essentially did nothing in response.
The same cast of characters who started this debacle in 2014 are back in charge with the same disastrous results. Biden, Blinken, Nuland, Sullivan, Powers, et. al. , were smarting from Putin’s humiliation of them in 2014. Ukraine is still not a member of NATO and the EU, and now it is a smaller and poorer country in a proxy war it can not win.
If Ukraine had implemented the 2015 Minsk agreement brokered by Germany and France and signed by Ukraine and Russia, the Donbas would still be part of Ukraine. Now it is no longer possible to return to the status quo ante bellum.
We are now in a new Cold War. The war has driven Russia closer to China and a massive global political realignment is underway. Most of the world is ignoring the sanctions against Russia given its indispensable role in providing the global economy with commodities like oil, wheat, fertilizers, minerals, etc.
Ukraine was among the poorest and most corrupt countries in Europe. The war has only made matters worse. Many of the 7 million Ukrainian refugees in Europe and the US are not returning. And the estimated $800 billion to a trillion dollars to rebuild Ukraine will not be forthcoming. Thank you Biden and Victoria Nuland.