The major loss that I see here to the Ukrainian side is the loss of grain and grain facilities and related facilities. Perhaps the biggest “news” is that the US was flying air patrols to guard the grain ships. If true, that’s very significant, an “escalation” if you will, though it proved insufficient.
On the Russians’ side, the continued deliberate destruction of grain facilities is also an escalation, and in addition is a just plain “dick” move that could well result in many more deaths, and other negative consequences around the world, than this conflict generates directly.
My question would be: Can Russia make up for the amount of Ukrainian grain that they (Russia) are keeping off the market? I rather doubt it, and if that is the case, and the market is undersupplied, it will hit poor countries hardest. Russia can give away some grain here and there, but, that market is huge: Someone will come up short, and it won’t be the wealthy countries because they can pay the higher prices in a short market. A very large population in poor countries cannot.
I do not know where this will lead, but I can readily imagine the US and Turkey leading a UN effort to protect the grain in the Ukies storage and shipment facilities. Would the Russians then attack those?
The demand will not decrease for grains. Weather has affected decreasing amount of harvest. The cost is increasing even now to anticipated of decreased availability.
I fear Putin is willing to use a carrot & stick approach to victimize Africa.
Putin offered ‘free’ grain to Africa. Now that the criminal case of armed mutiny held against Yevgeny Prigozhin has been terminated, he continues his recruitment for Wagner.
[See Comment #10]
In the past, statements from Prigozhin indicated his desire to take Wagner to Africa.