This ‘war’ is a tragic thing. Russia started it, and needs to end it by retreating and tucking its tail between its leg. It lost the day it invaded, there’s no economic or resource or political gain by it.
It’s just machismo, which is the worst excuse for killing people possible. There’s not even a commie vs capitalism ideology reason. There’s nothing there.
I disagree with your analysis. I think Russia will keep Donbas and Crimea.
I think the US flipping the SWIFT switch sent a signal to the world.
The fallout from that will be felt in the coming decades.
This is opinion , of course.