Update from Ukraine | Bakhmut Flanks were cut | Situation in Nuclear Power Plant is Critical

The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 2nd July 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).

*** Great interactive map with viewer controlled Map magnification tool to use for each Front!

ARTICLES

1. EU countries spend more than EUR 43B to support Ukrainian refugees
Ukrinform
05.07.2023 01:37
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society/3731170-eu-countries-spend-more-than-eur-43b-to-support-ukrainian-refugees.html

European countries have spent more than EUR 43 billion to shelter Ukrainians fleeing the war.

That’s according to Ukraine’s Ministry for Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories, which refers to a study conducted by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Ukrinform reports.

“According to estimates from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the governments of European countries have already allocated more than EUR 43 billion to shelter Ukrainians. Such expenses include cash payments, housing, medical assistance, educational services, as well as the provision of food and basic necessities,” the ministry said.

According to the study, among the European countries taking in Ukrainian refugees, Poland spent the most - more than 12 EUR billion. In second place is Germany where expenses for Ukrainian asylum seekers reached almost EUR 11 billion.
Significant funds for Ukrainian refugees were also spent by the Czech Republic (EUR 2.94 billion), Spain (EUR 2.24 billion), France (EUR 2.04 billion), Romania (EUR 1.26 billion), Switzerland (EUR 1.16 billion) and Italy (EUR 1.15 billion).
The study notes that ordinary citizens in European countries made a large contribution to helping Ukrainians.

2. 3 Russian Grad MLRS destroyed near Bakhmut
Ukrainska Pravda
Tuesday, 4 July 2023, 08:39
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/4/7409720/

VIDEO-LINK https://fb.watch/lAwYKhjvKZ/

The fighters quickly transferred the coordinates to their brothers-in-arms from the Defence Forces.
Ukrainian SOF (Special Operations Forces) and artillery forces have destroyed three Russian 122 mm Grad multiple-launch rocket systems near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast.

THIS PREVIOUS COMMENT FROM MALPEARCE IS EXCELLENT:

Happy Independence Day.

You do know that the IAEA has *confirmed* that Russia had previously mined the ZNPP complex and had definitely been storing munitions inside it, as well as military vehicles - in violation of international principles?

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-168-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine-0

They predicate the current observations (to the effect of, no current signs of nefariousness by the Russians) with the fact they don’t have unhindered access to all areas.

“As Director General Grossi said last week, no mines were observed at the site during his visit to the ZNPP on 15 June, his third in less than ten months. However, the IAEA has been aware of a previous placement of mines outside the plant perimeter, which the Agency has reported about earlier, and also at particular places inside.”

“The five basic principles for the protection of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant (NPP) ... state that there should be no attack from or against the plant and that it should not be used as storage or a base for heavy weapons – multiple rocket launchers, artillery systems and munitions, and tanks.”

“The IAEA team had not reported any shelling or explosions over the past week and that the military presence at the site appears unchanged.”

So from the IAEA point of view Ukraine’s not attacking ZNPP at all and Russia appears to have stopped booby trapping it... although Russia needs to be less “don’t go in there!” to confirm it isn’t just being selective about the areas the IAEA can inspect.

Again I suggest you consider five things: means, motive, opportunity, risk, reward.

Ukraine:

1. hasn’t got means or opportunity. Their rockets couldn’t make the plant go boom, they can’t cross the river without being shredded.

2. Only has Motive if you really believe that Kyiv would irradiate three cities it controls (including the 700,000 minimum in Zaporizhzhia city itself) in order to wipe out half a million Russians in the rural occupied area and drag NATO into putting boots on the ground. NATO might equally decide to just cut Ukraine off altogether if Kyiv went THAT rogue.

3. Can’t explain how the (nonexistent) rewards would outweigh the (incalculable) risks.

Repeat for Russia. They have means and opportunity as they control the whole complex. Motive? Implausible unless you think that Russia really has gone full tonto “all our hopes are with the famine” and would rather poison the Donbas than surrender it. Risk? They keep reminding any would be retaliators that they have nukes. Reward? None beyond it proving that Russia today is madder, badder and far more dangerous than the USSR.

So, neither story really stacks up but you’re left comparing the plausibility of Russian leaders exercising their nuclear option and proving they really would go there, to the plausibility of Kyiv committing an act of national suicide.

33 posted on 7/4/2023, 2:35:24 AM by MalPearce
https://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/4165340/posts?page=33#33

I just finished watching the 22+ minute video about Russia’s populations problems linked in comment #3. item 2.

It points out the many difficulties that have developed in Russia’s population profile, and some of their causes. One startling figure was 1/2 million people left Russia in the first month of the NOT war that started in Ukraine in Feb. 2022. A total of 1.3 million left that year. I think this does not include the vast exodus of military age men after Putin said he wanted 300,000 more pieces of meat for the Ukraine battlefield. Video 1. at the same comment reports Putin is so desperate he is now sending men over 60 to die there.

There was a major drop in birth rate in the period of turmoil and transition from USSR to the current regime. Things were improving until Putin went full dictator. However, the fewer children born in that period are now in their twenties and thirties and are especially needed in the labor force, which has shrunk even more with the massive exodus of military age men. The search elsewhere for better pay and more secure lives has really hurt Russia’s prospects. Without an adequate well educated workforce can Russia remain a First World country.

Several charts are examined in detail comparing Russia’s population details with those of the US. This includes comparing the number of each sex at 5 year age intervals. Elsewhere I have seen detailed reports on how Putin has retained popularity by paying pensions to the elderly. The elderly population will increase significantly with far fewer tax paying businesses and workers contributing to the pension funds. That will not be good for Putin. In fact there is very little that can be deduced from the information in this video that is good for Putin. He alone has some control over how BAD it will be for Putin.

I doubt that Ukraine is suicidal. I don’t know about Putin or some of his drunken officers. One report was that a drunk Russian officer pressed buttons that made the planned flooding from the big dam into a far worse disaster than originally desired. Meanwhile we can hope that Putin cares enough about his future reputation to not commit a suicidal act when he finally knows he has lost.

As I contemplated our own national holiday of creation, and our future, I was motivated to write the material below to share with my friends and others who care about the future.

“Today we look forward to brilliant and loud fireworks displays, the classic July 4th celebration of our own Independence. Then I thought of the so very real brilliant and loud artillery and bombing felt by the Ukranian people as they fight to keep their fragile independence. A few months ago I began to wonder why I gave this tragic story so much attention and concern.
Then I realized, of course, my earliest thoughts about the world outside my family were caused by my WW2 experiences as a child of 5 or 6.

We then lived within 10 miles of NY City. Once a week we rushed back and forth carrying all my fathers sales samples into the house for his air raid service night when he used his empty car for carrying people to hospitals or other possible emergencies. Other nights he had his extra part time job stoking a furnace for Union Carbide. He would come into the kitchen after that work and drop his spark singed skull cap on the table. Mom would shriek, “Get that dirty thing off my table.” This happened week after week. My child thought was why did they each do the same thing every time? Sometimes Mom showed me the newspaper where ships and airplanes destroyed by our Army or by the enemies were listed using ship and airplane icons. She taught me how to count using these figures. I also remember learning how the larger icons meant bigger ships and that was good if we did it to the enemy ships.

I came home from Kindergarten one day to find Dad, and a man with horse and plow turning the earth in several lawns around the house. We kept our Victory Garden for 11 years where I helped plant, weed, pick and eat about 1/5th of our food. It was also my job to pull down air raid shades when the siren screamed, and flatten tin cans, after mom removed tops and bottoms, for the scrap metal drives. I remember Mom taking jars of bacon fat to the butcher to send for explosives production. I still remember staring in the glass window below the counter at the delicious ham and roast beef hunks for slicing which we could not afford to buy.

For several years after age 8 I helped mom select special items and we packed them in Red Cross packages to send to her mother’s relatives and her sister who had married and stayed in Europe throughout the war. She explained we had to send silly things like silk stockings and cigarettes because they could be traded for food and medicine. Thus I have a clear feeling for what Ukrainians both within and now outside the country may be feeling. I hope they can soon have a celebration like our own that will be just an honored memory, rather than an ugly daily reality.”

VIDEO WITH SUMMARIZED COMMENTARY

04 Jul: What a Night! Russian LOSE 2 AMMO DEPOTS AND 9 ARTILLERIES | War in Ukraine Explained
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTNUWgASoCE

⚠️ Watch RFU in 18+ languages: https://www.youtube.com/@RFU/channels

I am Ukrainian. My country has been invaded by Russia. In this video I will tell you what happened on the four hundred and ninty sixth day of the war.

Day 496: Jul 04

Today the biggest news comes from the east.

Several hours ago, Ukrainians conducted an extensive HIMARS raid along the whole eastern contact line.

The first target became the biggest Russian logistical hub on the occupied territories – Donetsk. Donetsk is one of the largest cities in Ukraine by size, and it is by far the most industrialized one, which means that it has very well-developed logistics that Russians are gladly using to accumulate and store ammunition and equipment.

The footage was quickly geolocated, and it turned out that the target was quite obvious – Ukrainians struck a warehouse of the factory Sarmat, which is located just 100 meters away from the railway connection. Russian sources reported that Ukrainians used 2 HIMARS rockets to hit the facilitates. Some sources reported that Ukrainians managed to destroy the newly arrived equipment.

The second target became the twin city of Donetsk – Makiivka. Geolocated footage indicates that a powerful explosion happened on the territory of the metallurgical plant. The plant itself is extremely vast, so Russians used it to accumulate tons of ammunition.

Russian sources reported that Ukrainian launched 2 HIMARS missiles here as well, and even claimed that one of the missiles was shot down, however, it did not change anything. The explosion was so powerful that the smoke covered several cities. Ukrainian military-affiliated sources confirmed that Ukrainians successfully hit a Russian ammunition depot that had just received huge supplies.

The goal of these strikes was to reduce the available and ready-to-use Russian resources on the eastern front to undermine Russian defensive capabilities, in particular around Bakhmut. The creation of short-term deficits of ammunition and shells can create a perfect window of opportunity for advancement because, as you remember, Ukrainians have just 1 fortification left to overcome before they can expand south of Bakhmut.

Some analysts claimed that the ammunition depots that Ukrainians targeted today with their HIMARS predominantly contained artillery shells. And it looks like it is true because simultaneously, Ukrainians started using HIMARS for effective counterbattery fire very frequently.

Today Ukrainian 43rd Artillery Brigade released a video showing how they hunted down Russian artillery on the southern Bakhmut’s flank with their HIMARS. The FIRST target of the Ukrainians became the Gvozdika system near Zaitseve. The SECOND target became a multiple-launch rocket system Grad near Kodema. ANOTHER target of the HIMARS missile became Gvozdica. As you can see, all of these systems were providing support to Russian troops precisely in the area of Ukrainian advancement.

However, Ukrainian HIMARS crews also conducted a series of strikes on the NORTHERN Bakhmut’s flank. Here, Ukrainians struck the 2S5 Giatsint-S system near Bakhmutske, BM-21 Grad multiple-launch rocket system nearby, the second Grad in Pokrovske, the third Grad south of Pokrovske,, a D-20 howitzer near Pidhorodne, and M109 howitzer in Bakhmut.

Overall, judging by only available footage, over the last 2 days, Ukrainians destroyed 9 Russian artillery systems of various types. This is extremely important because the enemy artillery is the main factor that slows down Ukrainian advancement. If we combine the fact that Ukrainians destroyed almost a dozen Russian artillery systems with the fact that they also blew up several huge ammunition depots near Bakhmut, we can see that Ukrainians are rapidly creating very favorable conditions for a breakthrough.

*** Select the 3 horizontal dots to view the Complete Transcript [Below video/ top right corner]

KIIS executive director Anton Grushetsky: “now even in the south and East, people consider Russians enemies”
10.05.2023
https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=news&id=1236&page=1
https://umoloda.kyiv.ua/number/3854/188/175200/

A large-scale war has changed many factors in the worldview of Ukrainians. We were able to learn new values.

The unique path of development of Ukraine plus belonging to the global Western civilization is considered by our citizens as a guarantee of victory.

Ukraine’s success depends on joining the EU

- Anton Nikolaevich, you have very interesting research, for example, on Ukraine’s relations with the West. I’m interested in the scientist Timothy Garton Ash. Who is he and what is his role in these studies?

- This is a British writer, journalist, commentator, he has published many messages concerning Ukraine. This is one of those opinion leaders who influence the formation of public opinion in the West regarding Ukraine. He came to Ukraine in February, gave lectures at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, and had meetings with the country’s top leadership.

Timothy Garton Ash offered a few questions for our research. ONE of them is whether Ukrainians feel the need for the truth about the war. The SECOND is how Ukrainians feel, whether the future of Ukraine depends on joining the European Union.

And the THIRD and most sensitive issue is the situation with Crimea, because in the West, on the one hand, they support the territorial integrity of Ukraine, but at the same time they believe that Ukraine should decide for itself how to end the war. But this is an official position. Unofficial-between the lines of reasoning that the West is afraid that the issue of Crimea will become a “red light” for Putin and may lead to excessive escalation.

Therefore, the question for the Ukrainian population provided for two scenarios: the West offers Ukraine full assistance with the Donbass, but implies abstinence from military operations in Crimea; and the second option is whether Ukrainians should continue to fight, even in the face of reduced Western support, but win back all territories including Crimea.

By the way, if we see that 85-90% OF UKRAINIANS ARE GENERALLY AGAINST ANY TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS, then if we are talking about Crimea, the share of those who are ready for certain discussions is slightly higher, but now more than 70% of Ukrainians believe that Crimea is also a territory where UKRAINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO FIGHT.

- Yeah. But now this support continues, IT IS GROWING, maybe not as fast as we would like, but the Ukrainians are optimistic and feel that we have enough strength to do all this. Unfortunately, the average Ukrainian is not an expert, he does not have all the information. After a year of full-scale war, Ukrainians feel that we are strong enough together with the West to defeat our enemies and establish control over all territories.

So far, we see that those who believe that we should not only win, but also change society for the better prevail. But the fact that there are 30% of those who believe that we have already done so much that we should simply be given financial support creates a certain great potential for political populists and for political speculators who can take advantage of such sentiments of the population: “we don’t need to go along with the West, fulfill their bonded conditions”, “we just have to give everything, because we are defending Europe with ourselves”.

— Again the question proposed by Timothy Garton Ash: “one of the expectations of Ukrainians is fair retribution, when the perpetrators of the war will be brought to justice. At the same time, it is an element of communication between Ukraine and the West. To what extent do Ukrainians feel the importance of documenting the whole truth about the war (we are talking about a conditional truth commission, which should forever preserve an objective picture of events)?”- 88% of Ukrainians support the idea of the need to document and preserve the true history of the war, even if it will be difficult to achieve full justice with Putin in the dock.

— The latter is a more narrowly professional question from Timothy as a professional historian, and this question is supposedly obvious. On the one hand, we have a demand for justice — to bring to justice in the legal plane all those involved in this brutal war.

We certainly WANT TO SEE PUTIN AND HIS HENCHMEN IN THE HAGUE IN THE DOCK. THIS IS JUSTICE. But given the modernity, there are many arguments why this can be very difficult to do. This may be a distant prospect, Putin may have time to die himself before he is in the dock.

But another important element is to document everything that is happening, so that this history of the war is postponed for us, the Ukrainians who live all this. We understand all these facts: the defense of Mariupol, the situation in Bakhmut, the Kharkiv liberation operation, the liberation of Kherson, the suffering of people under occupation...

[EXCERPT]

- From 32 to 6 percent there are fewer people who believe that Russian should be studied in a smaller volume than Ukrainian, but in a larger volume than other foreign languages.

- Even after the occupation of Crimea, a huge number of people still believed that the Russian language should be studied, and even in large quantities. EVEN BEFORE 2022, 80-90% of our people hated the Kremlin, but they believed that the occupation of Crimea and the war in the Donbas were the RESPONSIBILITY OF THE KREMLIN, while 80% of Ukrainians treated “ordinary” Russians well. And so there was no critical attitude to Russian literature, to Russian culture. Now, even in the south and East, people consider Russians enemies.

- Now you should not learn Russian in schools, according to 52% of Ukrainians. It seems to me that this is not even enough.

- If you look at the life of one generation over several years, when we talk about society, this is a radical change in consciousness. Especially in the south and East. They went through a radical change in their consciousness, their value coordinate system, this year, and they moved as Khvylevoy said: “Get Away from Moscow!»

— In the South, 49% believe that it is not worth learning Russian, and in the East-30%.

— That is why we emphasize that in the East in 2019, 0% said that it is not necessary to learn Russian, and now-30%. Therefore, these are drastic changes. This, by the way, is a matter of responsibility of journalists and those involved in the media sphere, because we must support all these positive changes. The absolute majority of residents of the south and East are Ukrainian patriots, and they are undergoing obvious ideological changes, and we must support them.

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