[hardspunned]

Right, wrong or indifferent, how do you read these developments? I think we are passed placing blame now.

[pierrem15]

More bluster from the Kremlin. The real point is to control Belarus, so it looks to me like Lukashenko has lost his balancing act and Belarus will be incorporated into das Grosse Reich, err, I mean Russia.

The next few months will determine the borders of Ukraine. My guess is the Ukrainian offensive will push the Russians out of southern Kherson and push them back in Donetsk/Luhansk to roughly the Russian starting positions of Feb 2022. Then the haggling will begin.