Ukraine is not entirely incapable: it once contained a good part of the Soviet Union’s defense industrial base. It also has very good software developers. BTW, the Russians blew up one of the factories needed for parts to complete their newest nuclear icebreaker. LOL
And this point it is conceivable those pesky Ukies have found a way to defeat Vlad’s AA radar ( advanced phased array, etc). The key to Russia’s AA is their radar systems. Jamming their radar systems opens them up to drone and aircraft attacks. Exactly what the West did to the Iraqis.