If you have a modicum of knowledge about history, you know that war can occur when there are miscalculations about the enemy's intentions. You shouldn't ascribe your own values, intentions, etc. to the enemy. We almost had a nuclear war over the Cuban missile crisis because the Soviets did not believe our red line. Fortunately, both sides blinked and the Soviets were given a face saving exit with our withdrawal of missiles from Turkey.
The Russians have drawn red lines over the entry of Ukraine into NATO and the status of Crimea. As we continue to escalate our involvement in Ukraine, we run the risk of crossing these red lines. Russia cannot lose this war. If it believes its strategic interests are being threatened, it will raise the ante. We are already at war economically with Russia now. Who blew up the NordStream pipelines?
Take a look at what Biden said we wouldn't do in terms of the kinds of weapons we would and would not supply at the beginning of the war and what we are doing today. There has been a definite escalation on our side. What happens if the coming Russian offensive is successful? To what extent will we go to prevent a Ukrainian defeat. F-16s? US advisors? How insane are we?
“If you have a modicum of knowledge about history, you know that war can occur when there are miscalculations about the enemy’s intentions.”
I’ve studied history my whole life. My university degree is in history.
“You shouldn’t ascribe your own values, intentions, etc. to the enemy.”
I don’t.
“We almost had a nuclear war over the Cuban missile crisis because the Soviets did not believe our red line. Fortunately, both sides blinked and the Soviets were given a face saving exit with our withdrawal of missiles from Turkey.”
I remember the Cuban Missile Crisis very well. In any event, our Jupiter missiles were obsolete for the intended mission, but the propulsion system was the model for our space program.
“The Russians have drawn red lines over the entry of Ukraine into NATO and the status of Crimea.”
Ukraine is not going to become a NATO member, and everyone
— including Putin — knows it. Crimea was illegally annexed by Russia. Only a handful of countries — all Russian toadies — recognize Crimea as part of Russia today.
“As we continue to escalate our involvement in Ukraine, we run the risk of crossing these red lines.”
No, we don’t. As I said before, Ukraine is not going to become a member of NATO. Putin knows that. As for Crimea, there is little chance Ukraine will get it back, so any settlement would have to recognize that. But the other parts of Ukraine that Russia has illegally annexed are a different story. So, your two “red lines” will not be crossed.
“Russia cannot lose this war.”
Of course it can. Every war can be lost. But, perhaps you meant that Putin’s ego can’t afford to lose this war.
“If it believes its strategic interests are being threatened, it will raise the ante.”
As would any nation.
“We are already at war economically with Russia now.”
Yeah? So what? We have sanctions against a lot of countries and a lot of entities. In that sense, we are at war economically with China. Do you recommend that the US “surrender” that economic war with China?
“Who blew up the NordStream pipelines?”
I have no idea. Present the evidence in a court of law and if the defendant party is found guilty it should accept the consequences as set down by the court.
“Take a look at what Biden said we wouldn’t do in terms of the kinds of weapons.”
Conditions dictate the measures. A year ago is a long time ago; much has changed. Only a fool would restrict himself in that respect.
“There has been a definite escalation on our side.”
As the Soviets escalated in Korea and Vietnam. It’s how the game is played. You know that; you’re not naiive.
“What happens if the coming Russian offensive is
successful?”
That depends on “how” successful.
“To what extent will we go to prevent a Ukrainian defeat. F-16s? US advisors?”
No, we won’t put US boots on the ground in Ukraine in combat roles nor will we put US helmets in the air above Ukraine in combat roles. And I would very much oppose us doing it. Advisors? As long as they do not actively engage in combat operations, advisors are just that: advisors. We are already giving the Ukrainians intel, etc.
Let me ask you this: There are stories floating around that Putin is planning to launch operations against Moldova. If true, are you okay with that, as you seem to be okay with Russia’s aggression against Ukraine?