Russia’s New Commander in Ukraine Is ‘Ruthless and Brutal’—Former General
By Brendan Cole
1/21/23 at 8:45 AM EST
https://www.newsweek.com/gerasimov-russia-ukraine-general-brutal-shirreff-1775504
Vladimir Putin’s new overall commander in his invasion of Ukraine will be “ruthless” and the appointment shows how the Russian president is looking to play a “long game,” a former NATO commander has told Newsweek.
In the most dramatic change at the top since the start of the war, Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov has been tasked to head the campaign, taking over from Sergey Surovikin, who had only overseen what Moscow calls the “special military operation” since October.
The surprise move was the fourth time Putin has reshuffled the command of his war, and while Gerasimov helped plan the invasion, he had not been seen much publicly, with only one reported visit to the command center inside Ukraine.
Former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe (2011-2014) Sir Richard Shirreff has met Gerasimov several times and described him as “the sort of Russian general out of Soviet central casting.”
“He will not be in any way clever,” he said, “despite writing up this so-called ‘Gerasimov doctrine,’ which was probably written for him and he signed it.”
The foreign policy doctrine that bears the Russian general’s name prescribes controlling the information space, coordinating of all aspects of a campaign, as well as striking deep into enemy territory and targeting critical civilian and military infrastructure.
“I think it’s an indicator that Putin is in this for the long game,” Shirreff said, also referring to the announcement this week that Russia would increase its force size to 1.5 million as evidence of preparations for a protracted war.
“Long-term fight”
Shirreff said this announcement about troop numbers was “an indicator that Putin recognizes this is a long-term fight—he is not going to back down and his strategy is to out-suffer Ukraine.”
Even if the announcement by Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu “is not going to affect the battle this year,” it might have an impact “next year or the year after.”
“It’s one thing to say to increase the Russian army by 12 divisions. It’s another thing to actually generate those force levels, train them, equip them, ensure they have the logistical capability and they are ready for the fight.”
However, he said he was worried about messaging from some defense establishment sources that Russia’s high troop losses and withdrawals meant that Putin’s war effort was a busted flush.
As well as an enormous quantity of military equipment, Shirreff said “Russia has inexhaustible supply of manpower.”
“Russia has an ability to take pain and almost take some pride in doing, so I think we got to be careful of underestimating Russia,” he added.
Wagner Group Grapples With ‘Failures’ as Rivalry Brings Russian Rift: ISW
By Kaitlin Lewis On 1/21/23 at 12:05 AM EST
https://www.newsweek.com/wagner-group-grapples-failures-rivalry-brings-russian-rift-isw-1775484
VIDEO https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upplWJIYqpQ
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group appears to be failing to stand as a military structure without assistance from Russia’s defense, according to the latest report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The U.S.-based think tank wrote in its assessment on Friday that the private mercenary organization was “increasingly proving to be a parasitic paramilitary entity,” pointing to instances when the Wagner Group has reportedly misidentified deceased soldiers to their loved ones.
The ISW repeated a report from the Russian opposition news outlet, TV Dozhd, that the wife of a Wagner fighter had received a sealed coffin and death certificate for her supposedly deceased husband, only to later discover that he was alive and being held in Ukrainian custody.
“These reports suggest that Wagner lacks basic administrative organs to maintain records of individual servicemen and communicate properly with authorities” the ISW wrote, noting that Prigozhin “ironically has gone to great lengths to criticize the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) establishment, which he has accused of being inept in precisely these ways.”
Prigozhin’s fighters may also be relying on the MoD for military equipment on the front lines in the war with Ukraine, reported ISW, suggesting that the Wagner Group is acting more like a “parasite attached to the Russian armed forces” rather than a self-contained organization.
An infographic posted Friday by a prominent Wagner Group-affiliate military blogger showed an array of “military assets” that Wagner soldiers are using in the brutal fight for the city of Bakhmut, including systems that the ISW noted are “typically a military district-level asset.”
These shortcomings among Wagner’s militia come at a time when Prigozhin has been “increasingly bold” in his criticism of the Russian military, the think tank reported this week. John Kirby, White House national security spokesman, told reporters at a briefing Friday that U.S. intelligence has also found evidence that tensions between the MoD and Wagner Group are escalating.
“Wagner is becoming a rival power center to the Russian military and other Russian ministries,” Kirby said.
“Prigozhin is trying to advance his own interest in Ukraine and Wagner is making military decisions based largely on what they will generate for Prigozhin in terms of positive publicity.”
Prigozhin, a Russian businessman, has long been considered a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and his private mercenary group has played a key role in Russia’s war on Ukraine.
The close Kremlin companion recently had a rift with the MoD regarding the battle for the eastern Ukrainian city of Soledar, however, after the Russian ministry claimed victory over the salt-mining town without acknowledging Wagner’s role.
The Russian ministry later followed up with a report clarifying that Soledar was “successfully attained thanks to the courageous and selfless actions of the volunteers from Wagner PMC units.”
On Friday, U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley also told reporters that the war in Ukraine was “turning into an absolute catastrophe for Russia” and Putin, noting the “massive amounts” of Russian casualties and damage to its military.
Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Ministry of Defense for comment.