The main problem I see is that the idiotic, cowardly policy of dribbling equipment to the Ukrainians is giving the Russians time to raise more troops and adapt.
Every war that Russia has fought in the last few centuries has been an utter disaster for them in the first year. After that, they adapt. That, plus numbers, and sometimes General Winter, usually end up winning the war for them. Not because they’re better on a qualitative basis, just because they stubbornly outlast the enemy.
The problem that the Russians face now is that they no longer have the seemingly unlimited pools of manpower that they used to have. Between two world wars, famine, purposeful mass murder by Stalin and losing half of their population when the USSR broke up, they have completely given up their biggest advantage, and they now face a demographic disaster in the next 30 to 50 years. This is really their last chance to fight a war and regain certain strategic chokepoints that will guarantee their territorial integrity. What they are going to do several decades from now, when they don’t have very much manpower, even if they retake those choke points, is anyone’s guess. The Russians have made many enemies over the centuries, and now they are increasingly vulnerable to all of those ethnic minorities in neighboring nations taking back what they think is rightfully theirs. It may well be that the ethnic Russian state is doomed within the lifetimes of many now alive. Time will tell.
>Wagner or not, the corpses are coming out of Russia’s pool of military aged males. And I doubt the defenders are suffering anywhere near the casualties that Wagner is suffering.
Well, the problem is that neither side is honest about the war, but from what I’ve seen Wagner is doing the heavy lifting in Soledad and Bahkmut. The Russians have withdrawn most of their troops to artillery service. The Ukrainians are losing troops precipitously, and I expect that in a week or so you’ll see the Russians feint a big defeat and then the second wave of Russian attack will begin.
I just want this war to end. Pointless death.
UKraine’s own reports are showing tremendous losses in manpower which are getting ever harder to replenish. Russia has a bigger pool of manpower to draw on. which includes the North Koreans. Kim Jong Un has already offered soldiers for sufficient pay to NK. Iran can probably also be tapped