Anyone who thinks that there’s been a 6-1 kill ratio is ridiculous. Had there been, Putin would be sitting in Kiev smoking a cigar with Joe Biden peeling grapes for him.
It’s VERY plausible that a 3-1 equipment destruction ratio in favor of Kiev doesn’t align to a 3-1 kill ratio; Kiev fights to equipment destruction while Russia fights for real estate. But 1-1 seems about as optimistic as you can be if you’re supporting the Soviets. You don’t exhaust a 270-thousand army and rely on 60-year-old conscripts if you’re four times the population of your opponent and you have a 6-1 kill ratio.
Info that I follow, from various geographical and geopolitical parts of the globe, in combination with my own assessment, has:
- KIA Putin forces and KIA Ukraine forces, each hovering around 68,500 (or less) as of last Saturday (since Feb. 2022) (”KIA” meaning literally at location of combat - not including “wounded, died later”);
- Ukraine public info (Aug., Sep., early Oct.) via video attempting to buck up morale, focused upon Ukraine success using drones for observation and some of those drones for small payload delivery. But that “loose lips” information HELPED Putin’s forces, as instruction, and Putin’s forces have used MANY more drones, recently, with greater success - particularly around Bahkmut, because of Putin’s Wagner Force being determined to “live” up to its “business reputation;”
- Ukraine forces of rural origin, have the greatest endurance but need rest, and Putin will try to exploit that;
- Ukraine forces that are new (esp. from urban areas), are shocked by introduction to high volume gunfire from Putin’s forces. Partly because, new guys are introduced in large enough numbers that do not find enough experienced veterans with them and others in support: especially behind them, when the action gets hot;
- Putin’s forces are still able to concentrate numbers of men, and both: lose numbers and replace numbers, of men. Putin’s forces continue to benefit from the influx of Hate America First Volunteers from around the globe (war fighters and propagandists). I am expecting Cubans in that mix. I expect Putin to stir up “the unrest” elsewhere.
Putin seems convinced that Hate America First will make brutal enforcement of Socialism, “popular” again on the shoulders of militarism.
A war of three:
Putin representing eastern socialism
Zelensky representing European socialism
Biden representing western socialism
A history professor said, “Socialism is inevitable.”
My observation is that socialists are destructive and will inevitably tear each other, and themselves, apart.