Trump self funded most of his primary run to get the nomination in 2016. DeSantis does not have the personal wealth to fund a primary run. Therefore if he runs he will have to rely on big donor money as well as small contributions from rank and file Republicans. The big money donations are not gratuities, they come with stated or implied future favors or policies if the candidate wins office.
Bush wing Republicans have a history of pandering to the conservative voter base with conservative messaging (George H. W. Bush, “no new taxes” pledge for example). Once elected the candidate does the work of the big donors and makes excuses for not aggressively pursuing a conservative agenda.
As governor DeSantis is supporting many conservative policies aggressively under heavy attacks from Democrats and the media. He has demonstrated unusual toughness for an establishment Republican on immigration, woke companies, vaccine mandates, government lockdowns, 2nd Amendment rights, small business, and voting integrity. In addition he has demonstrated a high level of competence in carrying out his administrative duties as the state of Florida’s chief executive. His appointees to office, and his staff, also appear to be competent and supporting his policies.
General election campaigns for POTUS now cost each candidate over one billion dollars. The Democrats will enjoy at least another billion dollars worth of free media support from the press. Billionaires such as Soros, Gates, Zuckerberg, and Bloomberg will be spending additional hundreds of millions to fund get out the vote activities of social justice organizations allied with the left. Zuckerberg in 2020 gave $400 million to left wing Democrat election officials to fund their get out the vote efforts in swing and blue states. This concerted effort by billionaires to swing elections to further leftist ideology does not exist on this scale for establishment or MAGA candidates.
Whoever is the GOP presidential candidate in 2024 will likely raise about a billion dollars. There will be immense pressure by leftist groups and the media to suppress spending on theRepublican campaign by wealthy individuals and corporations. Meanwhile the Democrat candidate will raise more money for the general election campaign plus have the benefit of free media support and the support of many social activist groups, some funded by the taxpayer. The Democrat campaign messaging will be tightly managed across all of the allied groups.
Trump, DeSantis or some other Republican 2024 nominee will face extraordinary obstacles communicating a message to the independent swing voters required to win. We have passed the tipping point where money disproportionately flows to Democrats, the media makes no pretense of even handed reporting, and the huge government bureaucracy is actively pressing on the scales to favor one side.
The America of 2024 will be very different from the America of 2016. Millions of the elderly voters in 2016 have died. Millions of under voting age Americans, who were being indoctrinated by woke schools in 2016, will be casting votes in 2024. Plus millions of immigrants, and children of immigrants, will be voting in 2024 who were not voting in 2016.
It is very possible the people who were not eligible to vote in 2016, and who have little knowledge of that election, will determine the outcome of the 2024 election. Demographics is changing the country rapidly just as 70 years of progressive education has impacted the cultural norms and attitudes toward big government. Add to that the precipitous decline in religions belief. We are no longer a nation of shared values, shared history, or shared love of liberty. This is the electorate any candidate will face in 2024.
“Demographics is changing the country...”
Well said. I have been trying to pound this into conservative heads as well but a lot of people are still asleep or have foolishly drank the civnatcuck koolaid.
Good assessment. Thanks.
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Just like it was much different from the time Columbus sailed
the ocean blue. Different rules, rulers, ethnicity, religions, etc.
Look at the changes in the USA in the last 250 years or so. The
world is ever changing and much more rapid than in the past.
Enjoy your short span on earth as much as you can.
The analysis misses the role of volunteers. Some want affirmative action. Their candidate desrves to win without earning it, without his supporters working for it.
Consevatives win when they shift from spectator to player in the game. We need to actively evangelize, convert.
20% gap between R Kemp and R Walker. That 20% is a start.
In my Chicago burb 15% were solid R. 13% solid D. 72% swing voters. Alan Keyes type pastor’s wife made the diff 87%.
I came to Ga, the same. East Atlanta voted heavily D in 2016 and a few moths late heavily for the candidae for mayor who was Rpublican. OK, she was Chamber of Commerce R. That is not the point. The point is that few voters are hard R or hardb D. Most voters are independents who lean one way or the other.
They can be convinced to go either way depending on